White paper on China, US, Trump likely

A new Australian blue print for foreign policy is expected to focus on the US and China and potentially the implications of a Donald Trump presidency.

Potential flashpoints between China and the United States and the implications of a Donald Trump presidency are likely to be canvassed in a new blueprint for Australian foreign policy.

The Turnbull government has pledged to draft the first white paper to guide diplomacy efforts since 2003 if it retains power at the July 2 election.

Thirteen years ago national security was the centrepiece of a 10-year foreign policy plan.

The aftershocks of the 2002 Bali bombing, a looming war in Iraq, the threat of rogue states and the September 11 attacks in the US shaped that outlook.

The 2003 strategy restored the foreign policy importance of Asia which had been downgraded in the first white paper in 1997 and replaced with a renewed focus on traditional alliances with Washington and London.

It also recognised regional relations would be crucial if Australia was to stop the spread of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction in South-East Asia and the Pacific.

If the latest Defence white paper is anything to go by the dominant global powerbrokers will feature prominently.

That paper declared the roles and relationship of the US and China to be the most strategically important factor shaping security and economic development in the Indo-Pacific to 2035.

It considered a major conflict between the two powers as unlikely, but pointed to several flashpoints of tension especially around sea and airspaces in the South China and East China Seas and international rules dealing with space and cyberspace.

It also predicted relationships with America and China would be a mix of co-operation and competition.

The new foreign policy white paper will have to take into account the implications of a potential Donald Trump presidency, something former US Ambassador Kim Beazley has already warned about.

Australia may no longer be able to rely on assumptions about US policy, he has said, predicting a president Trump would immediately kill off the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, US relations with China would go from competitive to adversarial and relations with Japan and Korea would be become complicated.

Mr Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, has flagged he wants to charge allies billions of dollars for defence assistance and cut back on US military resources in Asia.

Mr Trump first has to beat Democrat Hillary Clinton, a former secretary of state, to the White House at the November presidential election.

Mr Beazley believes a Clinton victory would mean the thrust of American policy is retained, but with a Trump election the future was problematic.

The paper may also examine the fallout from Britain's departure from the European Union with the conditions of the exit set to take up to two years to negotiate.

KEY FACTORS SHAPING FOREIGN POLICY IN 2003

* Bali bombings 2002.

* Looming Iraq war.

* North Korea a nuclear threat.

* September 11 terror attacks in the US.

* Shift from multilateral trade negotiations to bilateral and regional free trade agreements.

KEY FACTORS IN 2016

* Tensions between China and the US.

* Territorial disputes in the South China Sea, East China Sea.

* Islamic extremism and the rise of Islamic State.

* Implications of a potential Donald Trump US presidency.

* Global warming.

* Fallout from Britain's exit from the European Union.

* Focus on bilateral and regional free trade agreements continue.

* War in Syria.

* Humanitarian crisis of 65 million displaced people, refugees and asylum seekers.

* Deteriorating situation in Afghanistan.

* North Korea still a nuclear threat.


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Source: AAP


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