Independent Andrew Wilkie is warning Labor voters they could unwittingly elect a Liberal in his seat of Denison by following the ALP's how-to-vote card.
The polls have Mr Wilkie well in front in the Hobart-based seat, but the Liberals are ahead of him on ALP preferencing.
A ReachTEL poll published in The Mercury has Mr Wilkie with 43.7 per cent of the primary vote, seven points higher than the last poll in June.
He is well ahead of Liberal Tanya Denison (23.1 per cent), Labor's Jane Austin (18) and the Greens' Anna Reynolds (10.5).
But with the ALP preferencing the Liberals ahead of him, Ms Denison has a chance of winning the seat if, as the poll suggests, Labor comes in third.
"I do worry that many Labor voters don't understand that this is the situation," Mr Wilkie told reporters in Hobart.
"A lot of people who will just follow the how-to-vote card without thinking too much about it need to understand that they may well end up helping to elect the Liberal candidate."
Where Labor finishes is likely to be determined by the carve-up of Greens preferences.
Mr Wilkie won the seat from third in 2010 with 21 per cent of the vote after Labor had held it for 23 years. He is running an open how-to-vote ticket after ruling out any preference deals.
