When the first targets were set to "close the gap" between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians in 2008, there was hope and optimism.
Then-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd told Parliament that “none of it is impossible, and all of it is achievable with clear goals, clear thinking and by placing an absolute premium on respect, cooperation and mutual responsibility”.
The country now has just 12 months before the first three of the original targets are due for assessment - on child mortality, academic performance and employment outcomes.
Short of an extraordinary turnaround, none will be achieved.
Child mortality
The metric of halving the gap in mortality rates for Indigenous children under five was rated as “on track” in last year’s report.
This year it is no longer on track.
The government’s report tracks modest declines in Indigenous child mortality over the past 20 years. Data for 2013 and 2015 fell outside variability bans, suggesting the long-term decline may be over.
Focusing on only the past 10 years highlights the slow progress since the Closing the Gap program was conceived.
Indigenous child mortality rates have slipped outside the "variability bands" set in the Closing the Gap report. Source: Closing the Gap 2017 report
In 2015, there were 124 Indigenous child deaths. This was four deaths outside the range of the "target" and an increase of six deaths compared with 2014.
Reaching the target in 2018 would mean saving the lives of approximately 40 Indigenous children.
Literacy and numeracy
By 2018, the government is hoping to halve the gap for Indigenous children in literacy and numeracy.
The government notes it is not on track for this target either. However the report does identify some successes, mainly in Year 9 numeracy rates and across each measure in the ACT.
In order to replicate these results next year, students will have to improve at an even faster rate.
The government used ticks to visualise Indigenous academic improvements. Source: Closing the Gap report
The government uses a system of accelerating "trajectories" in order to measure improvements in academic performance. This system assumes there will be improvement based on public investment, and that there will be a "lag in improvement over time as policies and programs take effect".
A footnote also concedes that results for all eight areas for the ACT were actually under the trajectory points, "but were still consistent with the trajectories due to large confidence intervals around those results”.
Employment outcomes
Employment outcomes for Indigenous Australians have gone backwards since 2008. The report notes that "Indigenous employment rates are considerably higher now than they were in the early 1990s”.
Indigenous employment has declined from 53.8 per cent in 2008 to 48.4 per cent in 2014-15. The rate for non-Indigenous Australians declined only marginally, from 75 to 74 per cent.
The report argues that these drops reflects "a general softening in the labour market over this period”. The results suggest that Indigenous Australians may be more vulnerable during challenging employment periods.
However Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull stated there was no difference between the employment outcomes of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians with university degrees.
"A reminder of the essential importance of education," he said.
Public sector recruitment
Many of the targets in the report require community, business, government and individuals working together.
However one secondary goal that is the direct responsibility of government is a target of 3 per cent Indigenous representation across the public sector by 2018. Individual agency targets are based on current Indigenous representation and regional factors.
As of June, 2.4 per cent of the Commonwealth public sector identified as Indigenous - 8154 in total. However just 13 of the 152 organisations had so far met their targets.
Over two years, the government needs to recruit another 2000 Indigenous Australians in order to meet this goal.
"While we must accelerate progress and Close the Gap, we must also tell the broader story of Indigenous Australia, not of despondency and deficit, but of a relentless and determined optimism," he said.
