The average Australian is 33 per cent less likely to be murdered today than 20 years ago, but more than twice as likely to be the victim of extortion. John Elliott crunches the latest crime stats.
Most major crimes have fallen in the last 20 years, including murder, robbery, break-ins and vehicle theft. The only exceptions are sexual assault, which has increased over the period, and blackmail, which is much more common now than 20 years ago.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently released its annual crime rate figures for 2012. This gives us an opportunity to look at the change in crime rates. The chart below shows the number of victims per 100,000 residents, with all figures indexed relative to their 1993 level.
This pattern adds up to an overall reduction of these crimes. Murder is considered the most reliable violent crime statistic and, for example, fell from having a total of 296 victims in 1993 to 255 in 2012, a 16 per cent reduction. This is despite the population increasing by 5.1 million, or 29 per cent, during the same period.
The drop in these major crimes is similar to the drop experienced in many other developed nations. A reduction in major crime has occurred in the UK, the US and much of Europe. A recent UK report described an increase in violent crime rates from 1993 until 2007, followed by a significant reduction between 2007 and 2012. This reduction has baffled observers because the crime peak coincided with the start of the global financial crisis, and the drop in crime rates has been sustained throughout the ensuing recession. This is despite high levels of unemployment and lower numbers of police.
The UK report cites better electronic surveillance techniques, improved information sharing between law enforcement agencies, DNA profiling and the proliferation of private security systems as factors. The downward trend seen in many advanced industrial countries can be partly explained by these factors.
The Australian reduction, in contrast, has been a steadier affair, and the downward course seems to have commenced six years earlier, in 2001. One possible factor is that there has been a slight drop in 15-24 year-old-males in Australia during the period. This demographic is the one most likely to offend and has fallen by approximately one per cent during the period.
Despite the good news of the falls in homicide, vehicle theft and kidnapping, we can see a different pattern for robbery, sexual assault and blackmail/extortion. Rates of robbery increased significantly between 1993 and 1998, with armed robbery almost doubling during the period. However after 2001, rates decreased steadily, finally falling below 1993 levels in 2010.
Robbery is often committed to fund drug purchases and a 2003 study from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research pointed to rates of heroin usage as a driver for robbery. The study found that a 10 per cent increase in the number of heroin users led to a six per cent increase in robbery. Between 1993 and 2000, the rate of heroin use roughly doubled while robbery increased by 70 per cent.
Sexual assault is one of only two types of crime to have remained above the 1993 levels, alongside blackmail/extortion. A publication by the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) suggested that an increased willingness to report sexual assault may have been a factor in the higher figures. It mentioned increased media attention, a diminishing of associated taboos and improved police responses as factors.
The Times of London reported that the internet and mobile phone photography are fuelling a rise in blackmail cases. It is safe to assume that with wealth comes an increased risk of being the victim of extortion; therefore perhaps the increasing wealth of Australians is also a factor. The growth in social networks such as Facebook and LinkedIn also makes it much easier for a blackmailer to research their victims.
Although the growth in blackmail and extortion is significant, the absolute numbers are small. In 2012 there were 440 cases, representing two victims per 100,000 residents. This is a fraction of the numbers seen in most other crime categories, with only homicide-related offences occurring less often.
There is almost no correlation between armed robbery and the two other crimes of blackmail and sexual assault. This suggests the main driver of armed robbery, heroin usage, has a negligible effect on blackmail or sexual assault. Interestingly, armed robbery has a fairly strong positive correlation with theft, indicating that heroin usage also plays a role in those crimes.
The negative relationship between blackmail and the crimes of murder, break-and-enter and motor vehicle theft indicates that the same factors could be fuelling blackmail but deterring theft and murder; including the increased wealth of Australians and the growth in technology.
Overall the crime picture is clearly a positive one. Almost all types of crime have seen a drop over the twenty year period, including major crimes such as murder, theft and robbery.
The AIC claims that the public often has a misperception that crime rates are increasing. However, the figures recently released by the ABS continue to fly in the face of these negative perceptions.
John Elliott is a freelance writer originally from Scotland but now based in Brisbane. He has a degree in Computer Science and works as a technology consultant. He also has an unhealthy fascination with data.
