Don't expect quick ending in Libya: analysis

There's a real possibility that Muammar Gaddafi could stave off the US and its international partners, clinging to power in a drawn-out and increasingly dangerous standoff.

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There's a real possibility that Muammar Gaddafi could stave off the US and its international partners, clinging to power in a drawn-out and increasingly dangerous standoff.

Confusion among allies over their goals and who's leading the mission is complicating the matter.

President Barack Obama conceded the possibility that Gaddafi could stubbornly hang on, telling reporters in El Salvador, "Unless
he is willing to step down, there is still going to be potential threats toward the Libyan people."

He added: "And we would continue to support the efforts to protect the Libyan people. But we will not be in the lead."

Gaddafi has 'history of endurance'

Gaddafi has a long history of digging in and enduring, after all. He's held power in the north African country for 42 years and survived US air strikes in 1986 against his compound in Tripoli.

This time, narrowly limited objectives for the allied mission, including assertions by Obama that Gaddafi himself isn't being targeted militarily, may encourage him to hunker down in the capital city, surrounded by his followers and militiamen, and try to outwait and outmanoeuvre the West.

"We are preparing for a long and glorious war," Gaddafi declared in a radio address.

In the first war that he didn't inherit from predecessor George W Bush, Obama has made a strong point of insisting that regime change is not his military goal - and that the US is just one of many international partners.

Obama still reiterates that Gaddafi must go, but he stops short of saying just how that might happen, talking in broad terms of tools besides military action that the international community has to achieve the goal, including sanctions and the freezing of overseas assets.

The dangers of the military effort were driven home with the crash of an American fighter jet, although it was due to mechanical failure and was in territory held by friendly rebels.

Both crew members were rescued.

Coalition 'considering all options'

Also, the on-scene commander of the international coalition said civilians were under attack by Gaddafi's forces in Misrata, Libya's third-largest city and one Obama has insisted Gaddafi must vacate.

US Navy Admiral Samuel J Locklear told Pentagon reporters the coalition was "considering all options" in light of the attacks, but he didn't elaborate.

The air strikes and other military actions have cut off Gaddafi from the oil-rich eastern parts of his country that have been under rebel control.

But Gaddafi, controlling much of the western part of the country including its capital of Tripoli, clearly isn't about to throw in the towel.

The beginning phase is murky enough, as allies argue among themselves over who should lead the mission and what the ultimate goals are.

The Arab League, whose support was pivotal in winning UN Security Council support for the protective no-fly zone, has expressed some misgivings over the force of the initial US air strikes.

Qatar only Arab nation to contribute to no-fly zone

And while Obama, travelling in South America, said that Arab nations would "absolutely" be part of the coalition, only tiny Qatar has offered its planes to enforce the no-fly zone.

And they won't be in place until this weekend at the earliest.

The United Arab Emirates has offered humanitarian assistance.

"We continue to talk to our partners" in terms of who will contribute what, State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Tuesday.

Talk, yes; agreement, not yet.

Turkey opposes NATO lead

Italy has suggested NATO take the lead. But Turkey was adamantly against that.

In turn, Italy suggested that it might stop allowing the use of its airfields if NATO was not given the leadership.

France, which seems the most eager among European allies to attack Libyan targets, on Tuesday proposed that a new political steering committee outside NATO be responsible for overseeing military operations over Libya.

Germany and Russia, too, have criticised the way the mission is being carried out.

"The fact is, day by day, we're going to confront the reality that a no-fly zone is probably a misnomer," said Anthony Cordesman, a national security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "If this structure can't stop Gaddafi's ground forces, then it fails."

"If we want to basically get rid of the regime, then we have to go much further and attack Gaddafi's centres of power and land targets," Cordesman said.

The narrowly defined military mission in Libya is to carry out Security Council Resolution 1973, which demands that Gaddafi's forces withdraw from rebel-held towns, establishes a no-fly zone to protect Libyan citizens, and insists on more access by civilians to water, food and other humanitarian supplies.

Obama said it would be "days, not weeks" until the US turns over effective military leadership of the coalition. But Army Gen Carter Ham, the lead US commander, has said he "would not put a date certain on this."

Furthermore, Ham says he could envision a situation in which Gaddafi retains power. "I don't think anyone would say that is ideal," he said.

Even so, at his news conference in El Salvador, Obama stuck by his assertion earlier this week that US will turn over command of the military operations within "days, not weeks," saying nothing had happened for him to change his assessment.

"I have absolutely no doubt that we will be able to transfer control of this operation to an international coalition" sooner rather than later, he said.

Obama on called French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron from Air Force One.

All agreed that "NATO should play a key role in command structure," Obama's deputy national security adviser, Ben Rhodes, told reporters.

Rhodes stressed that there was still no deal. While the US offers "unique capabilities," especially in air power, once a command structure is set up, "we expect our allies and partners to be in the lead," Rhodes said.

Still, Benjamin Friedman, a research fellow with the libertarian CATO Institute, suggested that "rhetoric about ousting Gaddafi notwithstanding, our policy serves to stalemate the civil war, effectively severing Libya.

That seems a recipe for a long stay."


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Source: AP

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Don't expect quick ending in Libya: analysis | SBS News