'Genie out of the bottle': Fears Turkey's Syrian offensive could trigger IS 'resurgence'

An abrupt departure by US forces from northern Syria has created instability in an area where around 12,000 IS fighters are being detained.

Smoke billows from targets inside Syria on 10 October.

Smoke billows from targets inside Syria on 10 October. Source: Getty

As Turkey continues its bombardment of northern Syria, experts are warning the conflict may see a re-emergence of the so-called Islamic State amid the chaos.

Turkish forces capitalised on last week's abrupt US departure from northern Syria by launching a military strike across the Turkey-Syria border against long-time Kurdish rivals, already killing at least 100.

But the area is also home to some 12,000 detained IS fighters and many more family members, who are being guarded by the Kurds.

A camp in northern Syria holding individuals displaced from IS-occupied territory.
A camp in northern Syria holding individuals displaced from IS-occupied territory. Source: AAP


Since Turkey attacked, the Kurd's priority appears to be self-defence rather than overseeing these prisoners, as nearly 800 relatives of IS members escaped one camp over the weekend.

But the worst is yet to come, according to adjunct professor Bob Bowker from the ANU Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies.

"I think it is almost inevitable that IS will enjoy a resurgence because the pressure on them from the Kurds, with the support and sponsorship from the US, will no longer be constraining them," Dr Bowker told SBS News.




He said the Kurds will likely continue to abandon the camps "to fight on the front lines" and IS could even start to "liberate" camps.

"[Then] IS will almost certainly look at conducting campaigns of revenge against minorities, such as Christians and Kurds."

Dr Bowker has served as an Australian ambassador to Jordan, Egypt as well as non-resident ambassador to Syria, Libya, Tunisia and Sudan.

Kurds take part in a demonstration in Erbil Iraq this week.
Kurds take part in a demonstration in Erbil Iraq this week. Source: Getty


He said there is now very little the international community can do to prevent an IS comeback as the "genie is out of the bottle" after US forces withdrew.

"IS is set to re-establish itself as a potent factor in Syria going forward ... and become a direct threat to the Syrian regime's interests," he said.



Asked how US President Donald Trump may be remembered for pulling out of northern Syria and effectively abandoning the Kurds, Dr Bowker did not hold back.

"[Mr Trump] will be regarded as a feckless and incompetent decision-maker who undid the progress that had been made and could conceivably have continued through a modest US investment in the Kurds," he said.

The US President's decision to pull out America's troops has attracted criticism from across the world and even within the Republican ranks.
US President Donald Trump Source: Getty


Mr Trump has been subject to similar criticisms from his detractors in the US.

"The president is simply derelict in his duty as president. He is making Americans much less safe, he is undoing years of work to curb [IS]," Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer said in a statement on Sunday.

"He is making America more susceptible to terrorism by his actions."

Mr Trump hit back, describing the US withdrawal as "very smart".

"The Kurds and Turkey have been fighting for many years ... Others may want to come in and fight for one side or the other. Let them! We are monitoring the situation closely. Endless Wars!" he tweeted.

He also said that "the US has the worst of the ISIS prisoners," using an acronym for IS, but added: "Turkey and the Kurds must not let them escape".

IS once controlled large swaths of land across Syria and Iraq, and drew thousands of fighters from around the region and the world.

But the so-called caliphate collapsed thanks largely to a campaign by Kurdish militias who were backed by a US-led military coalition.




Mr Trump has previously said IS is "defeated".

So far, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan dismissed reports IS prisoners had escaped as a result of Turkey's offensive, saying this was "disinformation" aimed at provoking the West.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says reports of IS family members escaping are false.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says reports of IS family members escaping are false. Source: AAP


Turkey's relentless assault, which has seen airstrikes, shelling and a ground incursion manned mainly by Syrian proxy fighters, has killed scores of civilians and fighters since its launch on Wednesday.

Mr Erdogan said the aim of Operation Peace Spring was to establish a "security zone" that would extend 30 to 35 kilometres into Syria and run between Kobane to Hasakeh, a stretch of 440 kilometres.

On Monday, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne said the situation was "very fast-moving and very dangerous".

"It will significantly undermine the gains that have been made by the international coalition in our fight against Daesh and, without question, Daesh continues to be a serious threat to regional peace and security," she told Parliament.

Additional reporting: AFP


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By Nick Baker

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'Genie out of the bottle': Fears Turkey's Syrian offensive could trigger IS 'resurgence' | SBS News