(Transcript from SBS World News Radio)
Predictions of wall- to wall conservative governments in all Australian states have been turned on their head by a feisty performance from Jay Weatherill's Labor government in South Australia.
The outcome of Saturday's election may not be known for another week, but all indications are that the ALP is in a strong position to extend its 12 years in government by another four.
Karen Ashford reports.
(Click on the audio tab above to hear the full report)
What a night - at a working class football club in Adelaide's western suburbs, South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill couldn't hide his delight.
"This election is clearly too early to call, with many votes still to be counted but as I stand before you now, we are hopeful of retaining government here in South Australia.
On the other side of town, Opposition leader Steven Marshall put on a brave face, saying the count's not done yet.
"Over 160,000 pre polls and postal votes are yet to be counted, we are still in the hunt to form government, there is no doubt about it, I think we stand a good chance in a range of seats."
Going into the election the Liberals were expected to receive around 52 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote, to the ALP's 48 per cent.
And that actually turned out to be the case - but what the pundits didn't take into account was Labor's tenacity in fighting for key marginal seats.
When the state awoke on Sunday morning, it was not to a Liberal landslide, but instead Labor set for 23 seats, just one short of a majority, and the Liberals likely to secure 22.
Counting will continue on Tuesday and Thursday, and Premier Weatherill says with so many votes in the balance, he's not giving up on securing the one seat needed to government in its own right.
"It's more likely than not that Labor appears to have 23 seats in the Lower House and we're hopeful of forming a majority government - if we fall short on that we will also need the support of independents and in any event we'll be discussing with the independents the support of our government."
Those independents are ex-Liberal MP Bob Such, who holds the southern suburbs seat of Fisher, and former Port Pirie Mayor Geoff Brock in the country seat of Frome.
Steven Marshall has been quick to argue why he thinks they should back him.
"It's pretty compelling when you have about 60,000 more people voting for the Liberal party than the Labor party, when you've got a 2PP (two party preferred vote) approaching 53-47, I think the overwhelming feeling in South Australia is a mood for change and I'll be presenting that to both Bob Such and Geoff Brock."
But Jay Weatherill says it doesn't work like that.
He's arguing it's seats won, not overall votes, that win government
He says the Liberals made that rule and can't now claim to have a right to govern using a different formula.
"The contest is under our electoral system to win a majority of seats in the House of Assembly. And that's always been our objective, and this is the system that the Liberal party in 1989 forced on the Labor party."
Steven Marshall won't rule out pursuing reform.
"After every election in South Australia we always go through this analysis of whether we should take a great look at electoral reform, Let's get this election out of the way, let's see what the final result is and then let's look at what we can do."
The head of politics at the University of Adelaide, Professor Clem Macintyre, thinks incumbency and stability is more likely to work in Labor's favour.
"I think at the moment you'd rather be in the Premier Jay Weatherill's shoes in negotiating with those independents than Steven Marshall's but there's still a number of seats to be finalised and the dynamic may change between now and, say, a week's time from here."
