Victoria's new Premier Ben Carroll has four months to turn Labor's fortunes around after deposing Jacinta Allan to claim the top job. His first act as premier was to commit to a royal commission into the state's construction industry, which his predecessor resisted. The election is set for November. It's likely to be a three-cornered race, and an early electoral test of One Nation's rise.
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TRANSCRIPT
“I am not Jacinta Allan. I am not Dan Andrews.”
That is Ben Carroll, Victoria's new premier.
He emerged victorious from a chaotic caucus meeting after Jacinta Allan resigned yesterday, and now represents Labor's last chance to turn dismal polling around.
The state election is just four months away.
His first act was to call a royal commission into Victoria's construction industry.
‘This has got to be done properly. The announcement of a royal commission is like music to my ears, because this figure can be worked out.”
Lawyer and integrity expert Geoffrey Watson has estimated corruption on Victoria's public infrastructure projects cost taxpayers $15 billion.
He arrived at the figure as part of his work investigating allegations linked to the CFMEU and organised crime.
“So I went to the civil contractors, rather than construction contractors. I said, 'What was your experience?' And one after the other, they were saying, 'The CFMU came in, and it increased cost by 30 per cent.”
On Wednesday, Mr Watson told a parliamentary committee the CFMEU pushed another union, the Australian Workers Union, off sites.
“They did that through violence, and they did it through gangs of bikies, and they did it through criminals, and they did it with their connections made firmly with the CFMEU. So I regarded that as criminal conduct, but it's not only that senator.”
Ben Carroll says, as leader, he will ensure the royal commission exposes the truth, after Jacinta Allan refused to back the inquiry right to the end.
“I will add to my comments yesterday that I said I want exhaustive terms of reference. No stone will left unturned, whether it is top-tier contractors, subcontractors, labour hire, government, unions. These will be exhaustive terms of reference. I'll have more to add on that in the coming days and weeks.”
He says he met with the head of the Department of Premier and Cabinet and asked him to get to work immediately on kickstarting the royal commission.
The premier hasn't yet named his cabinet, and it's possible the royal commission could call some of his colleagues to give evidence.
Robert Redlich is a former commissioner of Victoria’s Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission.
He’s told ABC Melbourne Jacinta Allan and her predecessor, Daniel Andrews, will “undoubtedly” be called.
“If the royal commission is going to look at where the problems started, why they started, that's the place at which the royal commission must commence. Then we have to look at how the contractual arrangements for each major project were made. What sort of deals were done? How difficult was it for companies to buy into the to the projects? What did the public service do in relation to their role in oversighting those contractual arrangements? How did the criminal element come to come to intervene and obtain the benefits that they have from that process?”
On Wednesday, the Coalition intensified its push to highlight the role of Commonwealth funding in Victoria's Big Build projects.
Federal Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson has called for a national royal commission into the CFMEU, while welcoming a state-based equivalent.
“I want to see people thrown into jail for taking public money and giving it to organised crime, and whether that's at the union level or at the political level, we need to make sure people are held to account because this has been one of the most outrageous examples of abuse of public trust. It has been a naked example of corruption that has been played out in front of the nation.”
He also joined his state counterparts in suggesting Mr Carroll’s leadership won’t turn things around.
“And he has been complicit in everything that has been done in this Victorian government. We haven't seen a change in direction. The Victorian Labor Party is a criminal cartel, and they've just changed the don.”
Victorian Greens leader Ellen Sandell has questioned Mr Carroll’s commitment to increase integrity in the political system.
“The new premier is really trying to rewrite Labor's history of corruption plagued scandals across Victoria, but he has not even committed to giving our anti-corruption watchdog, IBAC, the full suite of powers that it needs to go after corruption in Victoria and to hold the government officials or ministers or people who are responsible to account, and he hasn't promised to give them the funding that IBAC has asked for.”
As the criticism continues, Ben Carroll has also named crime, debt, productivity and workers rights as priorities, accelerating a policy to protect retail workers from abusive consumers on Wednesday.
Labor is facing a three-cornered race that will be closely watched for lessons on the rise of One Nation, which remains leaderless in the state, and has just announced its first candidate.
Even so, psephologist Ben Raue says the insurgent party could still end up with significant sway.
“I think even the less favourable One Nation numbers in that Red Bridge poll would've still had them in the balance of power. And the analysis that I did had them basically neck and neck with the major parties where all three parties had about the same number of seats.”
Mr Carroll has framed his election pitch - and decision to oust Jacinta Allan - as necessary to prevent Australia's first-ever coalition between Liberals and One Nation.
Ben Raue says he thinks a formal arrangement is unlikely, but Labor's messaging could prove effective.
“I think that could be compelling for some of those voters in those seats where the Coalition are probably losing some seats in regions to One Nation, and then they're hoping to pick up seats in the more traditional suburban marginals in the eastern half of Melbourne. But those voters aren't going to be fans of the idea that a Liberal government's going to be relying on One Nation.”
He says outcomes are difficult to predict on available polling, especially in terms of preference flows, which are traditionally modelled based on past results.
But Labor could see a dramatically different result by raising their primary vote just a few points.
“My estimates are that if Labor's polling 23, 24, 25 per cent, they're probably winning less than 25 seats. But if they're polling 29 per cent, they're winning the majority. And so in that 20s, it makes a big difference, because that's the point where you start to get into the top two in a lot of seats. And once you're in the top two, you can get other people's preferences. And I think they can win on what would've traditionally been considered a disastrously low primary vote. They probably could win. I think if they're up around 29, 30 per cent, then they're in the game.”
Whether Ben Carroll can deliver that increase remains to be seen.
“If you look at the recent polls, the Newspoll had them on 28, the Resolve had them on 27, the Red Bridge had them on 26. So we're talking a few percentage points, and maybe a new leader can do that.”
Victoria will head to the polls on November 28.
