Listen to Australian and world news, and follow trending topics with SBS News Podcasts.
TRANSCRIPT
As the US-Israeli war on Iran continues to expand, Russia will be watching closely.
The relationship between Russia and Iran is not one of mutual affection, but rather one of convenience.
Both isolated and sanctioned by the West, recent years have seen the pair pushed together as unlikely collaborators.
With Iranian-supplied Shahed drones proving crucial in Russia's offensive, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski says the link between the wars is clear.
“There is a thread that links the two wars, and the thread is the Shahed drone. Thousands of these machines of destruction have hit countries that did not attack Iran. 57,000 have already been launched at Ukraine. So, I hope it makes US decision-making realise that Russia and Iran are in it together.”
When United States President Donald Trump was elected for a second term, he vowed to end Russia's war on Ukraine on day one.
In an infamous White House meeting last year, Donald Trump berated the Ukrainian president, telling him to temper expectations for a ceasefire deal and insisting that he "did not have the cards" to be making any demands.
Over a year in, with peace in Ukraine still far from a reality, the United States is now asking Ukraine for help in its war on Iran.
For Ukrainians, who have for the last year suffered from the US President's erratic policy towards supporting Ukraine's defence, the irony of the request is not lost.
Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says requests from Arab nations have also been received.
"We are holding consultations, I personally am speaking with all the leaders in the Middle East: Qatar, the Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan. I believe I will also be speaking today with… well, I cannot name the country. Why? (addresses someone in the room) I think I’ll be speaking with someone else later today. In any case, we are consulting with everyone, and all these conversations show that people need air defence, specifically, our knowledge and expertise."
During Russia's four-year invasion, Ukraine has developed a range of cheap and effective drone interceptors.
The United States and Israel, alongside their allies in the Gulf, have expended hundreds of air defence missiles, costing millions of dollars per unit, since the war on Iran began.
For months, Ukraine has been running low on Patriot missile systems, the only weapon in its arsenal effective against Russian ballistic missiles.
In a rare moment of leverage, Mr Zelenskyy says he proposes swapping Ukraine's interceptor drones for Patriot missiles.
“Our request is very straightforward. We would like - with the help of countries we can name and those we cannot - to cover our deficit in Patriot missiles. And in return, we can provide the corresponding number of interceptors. Yesterday, I held consultations with everyone - the Commander-in-Chief, the Chief of the General Staff, the Defence Minister, our military leadership, and our intelligence services. We have a precise understanding of how many we need and how many we can additionally and rapidly produce if we establish a dialogue with our partners. In addition, we are certainly ready to share our expertise to help protect civilian and oil infrastructure, which, as you can see, affects the entire world."
Despite reaching new heights since Russia's 2022 invasion, the ties between Iran and Russia are likely not strong enough to warrant Moscow intervening in the US-Israeli war.
Not only does the Kremlin have an informal non-attack pact with Israel, which refuses to supply crucial weapons to Ukraine, but Israel also does not apply Western sanctions on Russia, making it a safe haven for members of the Russian oligarchy.
Throughout the war in Ukraine, the Arab Gulf states, which are now bearing the brunt of Iran's retaliatory attacks, have maintained careful relations with Russia.
European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas says she hopes Ukraine's offer of support means Gulf states will reconsider their position on Russia.
“I have had also calls with Gulf countries, and they have been really surprised how much Ukraine is helping them in this regard, keeping in mind that they are under heavy attacks all the time and maybe the support hasn't been really, you know, a two-way street but one-way street but maybe it changes actually from this day on.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte says Russia will also stand to lose from a weakened Iran.
"Now the Ukrainians are making their knowledge of drone technology and anti-drone technology available to the United States. To our friends and partners in the Middle East. So, it is also Ukraine stepping up, and I'm not sure that Russia is very happy about that. And Russia will not be very happy about the fact that Iran will find it's very difficult to keep on supporting Russia as they are so busy now to handle from their side this campaign and clearly unsuccessful, which is good news."
While Ukraine's swapping of cheap drone interceptors for expensive Patriot missiles may strengthen efforts, Moscow will also be looking to take advantage of the new war.
Russia stands not only to benefit from the US and allies being embroiled in a new and expensive war, but it will also welcome the spike in energy prices.
With the war in Iran already shaking global markets and disrupting crucial energy trade routes, Kaja Kallas says rising oil prices will strengthen Russia's economy.
“There's also the issue of supply change, of supplying the capabilities that Ukraine needs now, also the Middle Eastern needs when it comes to air defence, for example. And there is also the issue of the oil price. So, the oil price when it goes up it actually benefits Russia to fund its war.”
