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Stretching from the border of South Australia to beyond Albury on the Victorian border, the rural electorate of Farrer takes up around 16 per cent of New South Wales.
Led by former Liberal leader Sussan Ley for a quarter of a century, Farrer has voted either Liberal or National since its founding in 1949.
But with support for the major parties dwindling, the upcoming Farrer by-election could deliver a historic result.
So, who are the candidates? And why is this election getting so much attention?
MILTHORPE: "I'm Michelle Milthorpe and I'm running as you're independent for Farrer. For too long, the major parties have taken us for granted."
FARLEY: "We need to become aspirational again in what an Australian is and where Australia is going, I'm David Farley your One Nation candidate for Farrer."
Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, a teacher and advocate, is running against One Nation's David Farley, an agribusiness professional.
The key issues in the electorate are water management, regional healthcare funding, climate projects, cost of living, and fuel security.
With water a valuable commodity for producers around the Murray-Darling Basin, changes to the government's contentious water buyback schemes are central to both campaigns.
Dr Pandanus Petter is a political science research fellow at the Australian National University.
He says water is at the top of every candidate's agenda.
"If you put aside all the sort of national politics and just look at what the candidates are saying matters like Michelle Milthorpe, David Farley, the Nationals candidate, Brad Robertson, they're all talking about the importance of water politics. So Murray-Darling Basin Plan is under review and they're all sort of campaigning on this idea that the agricultural sector there needs more of the water compared to the environment."
If One Nation wins, it would be the far-right party's first victory in a lower house seat in federal parliament.
If Michelle Milthorpe wins, analysts say it could be harder for the coalition to win back the seat in future elections.
When One Nation first emerged in the late nineties, major parties preferenced it last.
Speaking to ABC's Insiders program, Opposition leader Angus Taylor says the coalition wants voters to preference One Nation.
"If you vote teal, you get Green. If you vote teal, you get Green. And so whilst preferences beyond preferencing the National Party, are picking the least worst option. And we want people to vote for the Liberal Party and the National Party."
According to Macquarie Dictionary, a teal is an independent political candidate who holds generally moderate views, but who supports strong action on climate change and political transparency.
While she has received some funding from teal-backer Climate200, Michelle Milthorpe has been very clear - she is not a teal.
Zareh Ghazarian is an Associate Professor of Politics at Monash University.
He says that while effective, the teal movement is often perceived as advancing the interests of inner city voters.
"Independents, especially in rural regional electorates, are seeking to advance the idea that they are truly independents. They are seeking to advance the interests of their local communities. And I think they are doing that and potentially drawing a line between them and the so-called teal candidates. Teal candidates obviously have performed extremely well in inner metropolitan electorates in Australia."
With recent national polling from the Guardian [[29/04]] showing that One Nation has now edged marginally ahead of the Coalition on primary votes, Dr Petter says the opposition won't want to alienate voters.
"It's not too surprising that they would preference someone that their voters would probably preference and that is closer to them ideologically and then long term, they may have some sort of strategic sort of idea in place. The major parties know that they're unpopular with a lot of people and they know that part of that is this perception that the two parties have got the system sewn up and therefore, they're not representing people as they should. So they don't want to contribute to any narrative that One Nation might put out about "Oh see look the major parties are conspiring against us."
On the other hand, critics of One Nation, including in the Nationals, have jumped on recent revelations about David Farley's own political alignments.
From attempting to run for Labor in 2021 to publicly praising Michelle Milthorpe just last year, Nationals leader Matt Canavan says there are questions about what Farley really stands for.
"And so if you do vote for One Nation, what exactly are you going to get here? Is it going to be like a box of chocolates in Forrest Gump, and you don't find out until you open it the wrapper? I see that David Farley has said that while he was exploring his options. Four years ago, David Farley was a 65 year old corporate leader, veteran. He was hardly a 20 year old on an Eat, Pray, Love, tour of Southeast Asia. I mean, what the hell does that mean exploring his options? If David Farley hadn't worked out, after 65 years on this planet that the Labor Party wants to increase taxes, buy back more water, how in hell is he going to be a good representative for the people of Farrer?"
Both the National Party and the Liberal Party are running candidates in Farrer but they are trailing behind One Nation and Michelle Milthorpe.
Despite his party having very little chance of winning, Matt Canavan is literally camping in the electorate ahead of the vote, sleeping in a swag through overnight temperatures of around zero because, as he told the Conversation, 'the opposition should not be comfortable.'
For the National Party, One Nation presents a perhaps more existential threat than an ind
Professor Ghazarian says a win for One Nation in Farrer would significantly strengthen its position.
"If One Nation was to win Farrer, it would be an extraordinary moment because it would give One Nation a foothold in the Lower House of the Australian Parliament, and that will give them greater visibility and greater opportunities to have a say in the political debate. At the moment, One Nation is represented in the Senate, but having that Lower House MP will just enhance their public profile."
If Coalition voters in Farrer preference One Nation on May 9, it could give the party a huge boost and potentially win them the election.
However, voters don't have to listen to party preference suggestions.
With a clear rejection of the major parties in Farrer, Professor Ghazarian says a win for Farley or Milthorpe will have major implications on the current direction of the coalition.
"The stakes are incredibly high for the coalition. Farrer has traditionally been a coalition seat, and if it was to lose this seat at a by-election, it would speak volumes about where the parties are standing at the moment and the sorts of areas they have to focus on moving forward. Losing the seat at a by-election is not the end of the world for a party, but it does give a very important moment for a party to reflect and recalibrate and reassess where it is standing and to ultimately rejig its policy approach to appeal to those voters who in the past have supported these parties, but are, for whatever reason, now feeling that they want to change their vote. "
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