The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party could triple its representation in the NSW lower house with huge swings in some seats suggesting regional voters are turning away from the Nationals.
The Shooters retained Orange with a huge swing towards the sitting member Philip Donato.
The party has also picked up Murray with candidate Helen Dalton beating the sitting Nationals member Austin Evans who won a by-election in late 2017.
Roy Butler also looks like he could pick up Barwon for the SFF. With 25 per cent of the vote counted Mr Butler was ahead 57 to 43 on a two-party preferred basis.
Mr Butler - a public servant and cattle farmer who's a vegetarian - says there's a sense the Nationals have "abandoned and ignored" people in the regions.
"It is an issue for the Nationals but it's an issue of their own making in a lot of ways," he told ABC TV.
"This is the price they pay for regional neglect. We can demonstrate that people have asked government to do things, they've asked them to stop doing things, and government carries on regardless."
Nationals leader John Barilaro noted his party had five retiring MPs this election while the Shooters were contesting more seats than ever.
The federal National Party hadn't helped by talking about themselves ad nauseam, he added.
"That's going to play some role," Mr Barilaro told ABC TV.
"But I also accept, as the leader of the NSW Nationals, that I'm responsible for our campaign, and I'll take credit for it if we're successful, and I'll take responsibility if we lose a couple of seats."
Former Nationals leader and outgoing Dubbo MP Troy Grant said the aborted greyhound ban and forced council amalgamations had hurt the Nationals.
Water and the ongoing drought were also key issues, the police minister said, but he denied the coalition hadn't invested in the regions.
"The money's there but the messaging we have been putting out isn't and National candidates aren't usually country people that blow our own trumpet," Mr Grant told ABC TV.
"We need to get better in communicating what we've done."
