Thailand’s poll on 24 March will be its first general election for eight years and the first since the 2014 military coup.
In the country of 69 million people, voting is compulsory for those who qualify.
“It's very important because the Thai people [haven’t] had an election for years, it's a long time, a long time,” said one Thai woman living in Sydney.
“The Thai country, it doesn't have democracy for five or six years, this time it's time to happen. The democracy [is] here. It’s good news for the Thai people,” said another.
While the poll is being touted as a return to democracy, it comes under new electoral system, which critics say is designed to ensure the junta government remains a powerful force.
Women hug Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha. Source: AAP, AP
After seizing control, the government promised to hold a vote within a year to return the country to civilian rule. Yet, repeated delays have seen the coup's leader, retired army general and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, govern for nearly five years.
Sunday’s ballot will end years of political uncertainty, but experts say changes to the constitution mean it's likely General Prayuth will maintain his grip on power.
Military to remain a powerful force
In a 2016 referendum, Thais voted in favour of sweeping changes to the constitution, which were drafted by the military government.
Dr Greg Raymond, a research fellow at ANU’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, told SBS News: “It’s not what we in the West would regard as democracy, there are significant limitations on the new government.”
Thailand’s 750 member Parliament has 500 seats in the lower house and 250 in the Senate. Under the new constitution, Thais will only be voting for the lower house.
The Senate will be entirely unelected - its 250 seats will instead be appointed by military generals, who are in control through the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).
The prospective prime minister must win more than half, at least 376 votes, from the combined houses.
It means that whichever party wins the popular vote will not necessarily form government.
What are the other key issues?
There has been a significant crackdown on political dissent during the past five years of military rule, and so some are hoping the election will usher in a new era of free speech.
“A lot of Thai people, you can't give opinion or anything because [the] Thai army stop everything,” one Thai living in Australia said.
“I think the military is not good because if someone wants to show opinion, it doesn't happen.”
People queue to cast their ballots during early voting in Bangkok on 17 March. Source: AFP, Getty
The economy, which was crippled in the aftermath of the 2014 coup, is also on the minds of many Thai Australians.
“In the first year Thailand went into a recession and since that time it hasn't really recovered hugely. It's been running at around 3 per cent GDP growth per year - that's not much for a developing country,” said ANU’s Dr Greg Raymond.
“I just went back to Thailand and the economy is not good. A lot of people don't have a job there,” one voter told SBS News.
“The value of money is not very good at all,” said another.
Who’s tipped to win?
General Prayuth is running for the top job under the newly formed pro-military Palang Pracharath Party and experts believe the changes to the Constitution give him a significant advantage.
Dr Raymond said its assumed most, if not all of the Senate seats, will be appointed to representatives who back Palang Pracharath and possibly other smaller, military-aligned parties.
“I think one would have to put money on Prime Minister Prayuth forming the next government. The low bar to him forming government is provided by the bloc of Senate seats, which we all expect will vote for him,” Dr Raymond said.
“If you take 250 seats of the Senate, as being in the pocket of the military and ready to vote for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, he only needs a further 126 seats from the 500 lower house in order to get to the 376.”
But, he added, the Palang Pracharath Party aren’t polling well, so it's possible they may not secure the minimum seats required to form government.
“It's unlikely that any one party is going to get a majority in the lower house, and then the government’s own party, General Prayuth's own party, they're unlikely at the moment to get 126 seats on their own."
And if that's the case, Dr Raymond said, they'll need to go into a coalition.
Who are the other parties?
Despite the scope of the military’s influence in this election, voters will be given back a significant amount of power, after five years under a non-elected government.
“This is a significant return [to democracy],” Dr Raymond said.
The election is shaping up to be a contest between three forces. Among them, are the military-backed parties, which support General Prayut’s return to power.
Palang Pracharat is the most prominent, but smaller parties such as the People’s Reform and the Ruampalang Prachachart Thai also fall into this camp.
A woman rides past campaign posters in the city of Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand. Source: AAP, AP
Then there are the parties aligned with former ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who though living in self-imposed exile in Dubai, has maintained a large support base at home.
Mr Thaksin was overthrown in 2006 military coup, while his sister, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was ousted in 2014.
Parties with links to Shinawatra’s have won every election since 2001.
Pheu Thai is the most significant, but smaller parties include Pheu Tham, the Pheu Chart and the recently dissolved Thai Raksa Chart, which was booted out of the race after it nominated the king’s sister as its candidate for prime minister.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, an associate professor of political science at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said the dissolution of Thai Raksa Chart, or TRCP, has not fundamentally changed voter dynamics.
“While Pheu Thai will likely pick up more seats after TRCP’s disbandment, the main beneficiaries are likely to be other anti-military. The votes that would have gone to TRCP are unlikely to end up with the pro-junta, pro-Prayuth parties.”
Then there are the swing parties, like Thailand’s oldest party, the Democrats, who could be key in the final outcome of the election.
“At the moment, the Democrat Party will have a fairly large bloc of votes, possibly over 100 votes, so they would need to negotiate there.”
But whether the Democrats are willing to form a coalition with the pro-military parties remains murky.
If they don't, it could make it difficult for General Prayuth to hold onto the top job.
Mixed feelings
Some Thais living in Australia aren't sold on the legitimacy of the vote.
“Maybe they just want everyone in the world to know they are voting now," one said.
“Thai people know what's deep inside, maybe you can vote at the moment [but] I think they will try to stop it again like the past.”
Thai people in Sydney have mixed feelings about the upcoming election. Source: SBS News
But outside the Thai consulate in Sydney, where many have been casting their ballot, a group of young women expressed optimism.
"I think one vote can change the future of Thailand - I hope. That's why I come here, I want everything to be better."
