We've seen entire nations go into lock down. Millions of people have been confined to their own space; running marathons around kitchen tables and turning living rooms into classrooms. But not in Sweden, where only those vulnerable or sick have been asked to stay home.
So is that simply irresponsible? Or the quickest way out of this mess?
This week on The Case we're looking at the three things we need to understand when it comes to herd immunity; what it means for both outbreak control and death rates, and what key data we are missing.
Sweden's COVID-19 strategy
While we grapple with the chaos of video conferencing, stress about toilet paper and pine for the pub, Swedes have still been able to gather in groups of up to 50 and social distancing is encouraged, not mandated.
Sweden's relaxed approach could be because half the population lives alone, while more than 60 percent already do some work from home. It might also have something to do with herd immunity.
What is herd immunity?
So you have ten friends, and none of them have COVID-19. Suddenly, your bestie is diagnosed with the virus, and the other nine of you are at risk.
But if most of your mates already had the disease and were now immune, the likelihood of your bestie passing it onto you is much lower.
Zoom out to the whole country and herd immunity is when enough of the population are immune and the virus can't spread at all.
How do you get immune? Two ways: get vaccinated or get sick.
Source: The Feed
Since a vaccine is said to be at least 12 months away - if it comes at all - then getting sick might be our best option, right? Well, not so fast.
Herd immunity sounds great in theory, but in practice it could be a minefield.
Outbreak control
Allowing an unknown virus to spread surrenders any control over it. And with a virus that naturally doubles its victims every three days things can get out of hand very quickly. That means overwhelmed health services and more deaths.
The former deputy chief medical officer, Professor John Matthews, told The Feed gaining the upper hand on an epidemic allows authorities to take a breath and assess the next steps.
"If we keep it under control, we've got more time to solve problems like acquisition of PPE [personal protective equipment] and get evidence of new ideas that steer towards a more balanced policy," he told The Feed.
"Sweden took the line of exposure, the price they are paying for that is a higher mortality rate," he said.
The potential death rates
In Australia there have so far been two deaths for every one million people, in Sweden there's been 119.
Unlike a vaccination - getting a virus to gain immunity can be fatal. In Australia, to achieve herd immunity the best estimates are around 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected with COVID-19. That's 15 million people. And if the mortality rate is one percent, that is 150,000 deaths.
Professor Peter Collignon specialises in infectious diseases at the Australian National University, and he says, "This is not a virus we want going freely through society."
That's because we just don't know enough about it yet.
The data on COVID-19
Being diagnosed with COVID-19 might not mean immunity for the long term, because we don't know long immunity might last. The numbers of how many people are immune to the virus is still unclear.
The bottom line is we aren't even clear on how many people have actually been infected, because not everyone who has had the virus has been tested. The uncertainty means we just don't know how many people would die if we aimed for herd immunity.
Professor Mathews says reaching herd immunity gradually and in a way that doesn't expose the most vulnerable people could be possible.
"But a lot of discussion has to happen to get a scenario together that meets that criteria," he told The Feed.
"In the short term, we should stick with the current settings while gathering evidence that will help inform any changes." he said.
He's not alone in thinking herd immunity might be an option. Professor Allen Cheng, an infectious disease physician from Monash University, thinks so too.
"If there were a lot of people that happened to have been infected and naturally immune now, then that actually makes that strategy a bit more attractive," Prof Cheng said.
But experts agree we need to wait for the data.
How long should lockdown last?
The Swedish government is now under pressure to abandon its plan and make the lockdowns stricter, but in Australia it's the opposite. As we flatten the curve and contain the virus, there are already calls to ease restrictions.
Professor Peter Collignon says there is a limit to how long a lockdown can be sustained.
"This is about more than saving lives. It's livelihoods, people's sanity, social interactions and relationships. There is a balancing act here and we have to save as many lives as we can but we can't all become hermits for the next two years," he said.
There is a big difference between talking about herd immunity at the start of an epidemic and talking about it now, according to Associate Professor Arindam Basu from the University of Canterbury in New Zealand.
"That is where the tightrope walking comes in: at what point should we release the locks so we never reach the point our services are overwhelmed?" he said.
He says even if regulations ease, incoming travellers still need to be monitored and people need to maintain social distancing and practice good hand hygiene.
The verdict
If we are to walk the tightrope, we need three things: accurate data that tells us what the death rate actually is, a hospital system that's ready to cope and, hopefully, a treatment.
"The analogy is, first you need to get on the life raft and work it out from there. At the moment we are just getting onto the life raft," Prof Cheng said.
The truth is, natural herd immunity could be a way off that life raft and onto dry land. But trying to engineer it now is premature and risky.
People in Australia must stay at least 1.5 metres away from others and gatherings are limited to two people unless you are with your family or household.
If you believe you may have contracted the virus, call your doctor (don’t visit) or contact the national Coronavirus Health Information Hotline on 1800 020 080. If you are struggling to breathe or experiencing a medical emergency, call 000.
SBS is committed to informing Australia’s diverse communities about the latest COVID-19 developments. News and information is available in 63 languages at sbs.com.au/coronavirus.
