【中美贸易战】:"将导致中国的GDP增长蒸发1%"

United States and China Cargo Container Isolated. Trade war Concept

Source: iStockphoto

特朗普近日在推特威胁,美国将价值2500亿的中国商品关税从10%上调到25%,而中国对此做出强硬的反应。


莫纳什大学商学院史鹤龄博士就此话题接受本台采访。

史鹤龄博士认为,中国对中美贸易战的后果一直是低估的。

如果美国把关税上调到25%,将直接导致中国中小出口企业无法向美国出口。

而且还将导致中国的GDP增长蒸发1%,而不是经济学人智库估计的0.2到0.3%。

与此同时,史鹤龄博士认为,中国高估了自己手中的牌:虽然中国在上季录得6.4% 的GDP增长,还成功举办了大型的国际会议“一带一路”高峰论坛。

为什么这么说?

下面是莫纳什大学商学院史鹤龄博士的分析:

(以上为嘉宾观点,不代表本台立场。)


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