Global pressure continues to build on the Morrison government to increase its climate ambitions as the responsible minister boasts about new carbon emission figures.
The projections cobble together various private and government agency modelling of key areas including electricity, agriculture and transport, to show Australia's emissions are trending downward.
It shows emissions are projected to decline 22 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, short of the 26 to 28 per cent goal needed to achieve Australia's Paris agreement target.
But another scenario - being stressed by the government - shows the goal will be met if low emissions technologies outlined in Energy Minister Angus Taylor's technology road map are in use.
In this case, Australia's 2030 emissions levels would be 29 per cent below 2005 levels.
Australia's emissions are currently 16.6 per cent below 2005 levels.
The updated projections pave the way for the government to drop its plan to use so-called carry over credits to meet the Paris agreement, a calculation method no other country plans to use.
But Mr Taylor is using those calculations to boast about Australia's progress.
"Action and outcomes are what matter, and our track record is one that all Australians can be proud of," he said on Thursday.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese described the carry-over plan as a farce, rejecting assertions the government dropped the accounting method because it was no longer needed.
"They've dropped it because it was never going to be allowed," he told ABC radio.
The projections assume air and car travel will rebound, but to lower levels than before the pandemic, due to an increase in video meetings and slowed population growth.
Gas production is projected to grow by three per cent while electric vehicles are expected to make up 26 per cent of new car sales by 2030.
The United Nations is increasing pressure on governments around the world to boost emission reduction goals and focus on green recoveries from the coronavirus pandemic.
A new report from the UN's environment arm says temperatures are on track to rise by more than three degrees Celsius this century, even with a dip in emissions because of the health crisis.
The increase is out of line with the Paris agreement's goals of keeping warming to well below two degrees.
Australia is mentioned as one of five G20 members whose climate ambitions are expected to fall short, along with Brazil, Canada, Korea and the United States.
The report comes ahead of an online global climate summit.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has not yet got a speaking spot for the 12 December meeting, which will be led by British leader Boris Johnson and the UN.
The UN has previously told leaders their ticket to speak is conditional on a commitment to stronger climate action.
