In December 2024, China lifted a ban on two Australian beef producers, signalling the end of a four-year trade dispute between the two countries.
However, when China announced new trade restrictions on Australian beef last week, concerns — from both Australia and the red meat industry — have been raised around whether China is plotting another trade war against Australia.
China's commerce ministry introduced a quota on beef exports, and exporters who exceed the quota will be subject to a 55 per cent tariff.
As Australian beef is protected by the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), the commerce ministry also announced that it would pause compliance with the relevant measures in the agreement.
The tariff is set to last three years, starting 1 January 2026.
Trade Minister Don Farrell said the government was "disappointed by this decision", calling on China to respect Australia's status as a "valued free trade agreement partner".
While Australia's red meat industry is yet to estimate the potential impacts of the tariffs, Australian exporters may be better prepared in comparison to previous trade changes.
How China's domestic beef crisis triggers tariffs
While trade disputes between Australia and China in 2020 stemmed from geopolitical tensions amid the COVID-19 pandemic, China's most recent tariff announcement is mainly aimed at appeasing China's domestic producers.
Chinese media reports — dating back to 2023 — found the country's red meat sector has been facing an oversupply crisis, which has led to a drastic price drop in Chinese beef.
However, the overall import of beef into China has been rising, sparking concerns and complaints from China's red meat sector.
In December 2024, the China Animal Agriculture Association submitted a request to China's commerce ministry, in partnership with nine other agricultural organisations, urging China to investigate the damage caused by red meat exports to domestic products and sectors.
International Markets at Meat & Livestock Australia general manager Andrew Cox said Australia had participated in the investigation.
"We were invited to be an interested party, and we put forward what we thought was a very strong case against damages [on Chinese sectors] caused by Australian beef," he told SBS News.
China had also been cautious about the investigation, as it extended the investigation's deadline by another three months, citing the need to review a large volume of materials due to the case's complexity.
How will tariffs impact Australian exporters?
While China is Australia's second largest destination for exported beef, Australia was only a "small player in the Chinese beef game", Cox said.
"We tend to focus on the higher-end, more premium quality products," he said.
Data from TradeMap indicate Brazil and Argentina were the top two beef importers to China in 2024, with Brazil accounting for approximately half of the overall imported value of the products.
Due to the large amount of Australian beef exported to China — which was over 295,000 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2025 — the impact of the tariffs is "hard to assess", Cox said.
"The quota that's been set is some way below the volumes that we've been exporting to China recently," he said.
In recent years, as the demand for Australian beef has grown, Australian exporters have triggered more safeguard provisions — a mechanism that allows importing countries to restrict imports to protect their domestic sectors.
In July 2025, before the tariff, Australia already triggered the beef safeguard in the ChAFTA.
Two months later, South Korea — which had also signed a free trade agreement with Australia and was Australia's third-largest export destination in 2024 — also had the beef safeguard triggered.
Exporters have learned the China lesson
Despite the safeguard provisions, Cox said it's good news that Australian beef was popular in international markets.
"In 2025, we had record shipments to a number of different markets, and that's because of the strong demand for Australian beef and also some tight global suppliers of the product," Cox said.
After a five-year trade dispute with China that had hit Australia's red meat industry, exporters have learned an important lesson, according to Cox.
"Australian exporters thrive when they have diversified markets. China has presented some wonderful opportunities for the Australian beef industry over the years, but of course, it's also come with a certain amount of volatility."
Over the past few years, Australian beef exporters have cultivated relationships with markets outside China.
"There's a lot of great opportunities across many different markets for Australian beef in 2026 and beyond," Cox said.
But, 2025 had been a year of uncertainty for international trade, with Australia also being caught in a tariff dispute with the United States, which was formerly its biggest beef import destination.
In November, following rounds of negotiations, the US lifted the 10 per cent tariffs on Australian beef. However, there was still a 17 per cent increase in exported Australian beef to the US in the first 10 months of 2025 compared to 2024.
In an interview with the ABC on Monday, Opposition spokesperson for trade Kevin Hogan said China's tariff announcement indicated "a bigger picture" for Australian exporters.
"[Australia] is advantaged by rules, by trade in order, and in the last 12 months, we've seen both the United States and now China again — like they did a few years ago — start to not play by the rules," Hogan said.
"And I don't think that's good for world trade, absolutely not good for Australia, and I think countries like Australia and other middle trading nations need to push back on the big guys that you have to play by the rules."
Volatility is common in international trade: "Of course, the market, the trade environment, has its risks and it also has its opportunities," Cox said.
"So whilst this decision from China is disappointing, there are still tremendous opportunities in other markets and in China, long term for Australian industry."
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