As the clocks struck midnight on the final day of the COP30 conference in Belém, Brazil, negotiators struggled to reach consensus over the wording of a draft agreement that omitted references to transitioning away from fossil fuels.
In a grey carpeted room at the Hangar Convention Centre, government representatives milled about with researchers, activists, and the media as a handful of key negotiators worked behind closed doors.
Shortly afterwards, attendees were told to go back to their hotel — no agreement had been reached.
Arthur Wyns, research fellow at the University of Melbourne and former adviser to the COP28 presidency, told SBS News it had been a "really long day".
"People were hanging out on chairs, and there were negotiators having a beer in the corner," Wyns told SBS News.
A man rests at the Hangar Convention Centre as negotiations stretch into the night during the tense final day of the climate conference. Source: AAP / Andre Borges
Now, the stand-off between oil-and-gas-rich Middle East nations, Russia, and some developing countries, against 80 nations supporting an energy transition, has led to a stalemate in the talks.
Unless it's resolved soon, the world faces the possibility that no agreement may be reached.
Fossil fuels and deforestation dropped
Tensions began after Brazil published its draft wording of the final deal in the early hours of Friday morning.
The text was in stark contrast to an earlier draft, which offered three separate options for nations to reduce their reliance on coal, oil and gas — the source of 68 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the United Nations.
"A lot of parties were quite surprised," Wyns told SBS News, adding that references to deforestation were also removed.
Wopke Hoekstra, the European Union's commissioner for climate, net zero and clean growth, said in a statement on Friday that the 27-member bloc would not accept the omission of fossil fuels.
"We need to make sure that the shift from fossil fuels to clean energy is real and in the text."
Juan Carlos Monterrey, negotiator for Panama, said at a press conference on Friday morning that failure to include fossil fuels risks the talks turning into a "clown show".
"Failing to name the causes of the climate crisis is not a compromise. It is denial."
Australia is one of around 80 countries advocating for the inclusion of a transition away from fossil fuels, along with the European Union and the United Kingdom.
Australia also signed the Belém Declaration on the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels, along with two dozen other countries. The statement recognises the need to phase out fossil fuels as soon as possible, and welcomes the recent International Court of Justice advisory opinion on states' responsibilities regarding climate change.
Dr Simon Bradshaw, COP31 lead at Greenpeace Australia, welcomed the move that acknowledged a "legally binding international commitment" to limit warming.
"This is the strongest ever statement from Australia on fossil fuels, and we intend to hold them to it," Bradshaw said in a statement.
A 'Step Back'
An agreement to transition away from fossil fuels was included in the wording of the COP28 conference in Dubai in 2023.
It was the first COP to officially recognise the role of fossil fuels in global warming, but stopped short of calling for a full "phase out" of their usage.
"It took a lot of diplomatic balancing in the United Arab Emirates to get the wording in," Wyns said.
This year, the Arab group, which has 22 members including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, form the main bloc opposing its inclusion, along with Russia.
Reuters reported that a statement delivered by Saudi Arabia behind closed doors said its energy industries were off-limits in discussions.
The Australian delegation, led by Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, supports a phase-out of fossil fuels being included in the agreement. Source: AAP / Fernando Llano
Wyns said a COP outcome that doesn't name fossil fuels, or where an agreement isn't reached at all, would be a "significant step back".
"If they walk away it could be seen or construed as a failure of multi-lateralism or a failure of the Paris Agreement process."
"And it also means that Türkiye and Australia will have to deal with this mess next year."
A 'Diplomatic Trainwreck'
Wyns also told SBS News the recently announced COP31 deal — under which Türkiye will host next year's event, but Australia will lead negotiations — could be a "diplomatic trainwreck in the making".
"Australia will lead the climate negotiations, but Türkiye will hold the political power at the end of the day, who will gavel through the decisions, literally, with a hammer."
According to a partnership agreement seen by SBS News — which is yet to be formally signed — Türkiye will preside over the conference as president. At the same time, Australia will elect a vice president and a "president of negotiations".
The document states that, if there is a difference of view between the two nations, "consultations will take place until the difference is resolved to mutual satisfaction".
Wyns said the problem is Türkiye and Australia are "miles apart when it comes to climate change priorities".
"If Australia doesn't wield the political power to come up with a political solution, then we have a serious problem because it means Türkiye will be the final decision-maker."
Speaking to SBS News from Belém, Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the agreement — made to resolve both nations' bids to host the event — was a "significant concession" for both Australia and Türkiye.
"It would be great if Australia could have it all, but we can't have it all."
- With additional reporting by Reuters
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