Incoming Labor president Wayne Swan says he expects the Coalition’s low primary vote in the Longman by-election to be “reflected” in similarly marginal Queensland seats at the next federal election.
The opposition is claiming an “utter humiliation” for the Turnbull government after Labor held all four of its seats that were threatened during Super Saturday’s by-elections.
“Look, there was a swing against the LNP last night of 10 per cent,” Mr Swan told ABC News, referring to the Longman outcome.
“So if you were to take that across Queensland, then there would be a very substantial electoral earthquake."
The former Labor treasurer named Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, which Mr Dutton held on to a 52-48 margin in 2016, along with Luke Howarth’s seat of Petrie and Bert van Manen’s seat of Forde.
A win for the Coalition in any of the five seats contested on Saturday – four held by Labor and one by Centre Alliance – would have been a rare event.
A sitting government has not reclaimed a seat in a by-election since 1920.
Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said there was “nothing remarkable” about a swing against the government in by-elections.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull speaks during a press conference in Sydney on Sunday, July 29, 2018. Source: AAP
“I have always said that history was against us. I have never given any indication that we expected to win these by-elections, none whatsoever,” Mr Turnbull told reporters on Sunday morning.
“The fact that your polls were wrong must be disappointing and galling for you, but the truth is the only people who should be embarrassed are the people that published the polls.”
Defence industry minister Christopher Pyne said the Longman result could not be extrapolated and pointed out Labor won by a much narrower margin in the Tasmanian seat of Braddon.
“I don't think we should overhype this result in Longman and I think what Labor's achieved is the average, which you'd expect them to achieve,” Mr Pyne said.
The Liberal candidate in Longman, Trevor Ruthenberg, saw a significant swing against him – down 10 per cent.
One Nation pulled a 16 per cent primary vote, possibly at the expense of the Coalition.
Mr Pyne said the government should learn from the result and try to “listen” to One Nation voters.
“The truth is, the way to make sure that One Nation voters would vote for the Coalition is to make sure we're listening to what they have to say,” he said.
“We have to speak to them about their issues, not just to say that they're wrong.”
The left-wing activist group GetUp claimed a key role in Longman and already has a campaign team in place for seats like Dickson at the next election.
“Hundreds of GetUp members campaigned against the Turnbull Government’s corporate tax cut in Longman. All up, they made 27,000 phone calls to talk to voters in just three weeks,” the group said.
The prime minister has consistently said the next general election will be held in the first half of 2019.
