One Nation is set to win its first-ever federal lower house seat at the ballot box, with David Farley projected by the ABC to win a by-election in the regional NSW seat of Farrer.
The ABC declared Farley the projected winner at around 8pm in the closely watched race, which is seen as having broader implications for conservative politics across the country.
As of 9pm, with ballot papers from 82 of 94 polling places returned, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) was reporting a 34.76 swing towards One Nation.
It was a shift that came at the expense of the Liberal Party, which experienced an almost equally large decline in support, with the AEC reporting a 31.23 swing against the party that has held the seat since 2001.
Both Farley and the Climate-200-funded independent candidate, Michelle Milthorpe, were polling far above the Liberal and National Party candidates.
By 8:30, both Milthorpe and Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski had conceded to Farley. Shortly after, outgoing Farrer MP and former Opposition leader Sussan Ley sent out a message congratulating Farley and One Nation on their victory.
"Serving the people of Farrer for 25 years, having been endorsed by locals at nine elections, was the privilege of my professional life. I know David will feel the same sense of honour and responsibility," she said.
Ley, who announced her resignation from parliament after losing a leadership contest to Angus Taylor in February, had represented the electorate for 25 years. It has been held by either Liberal or National party MPs since it was created in 1949.
But this election was different. Milthorpe and Farley were the front-runners, with Farley tipped to take the seat thanks to the Coalition preferencing him on their how-to-vote cards.
The race has garnered national attention, with analysts viewing it as a test of whether One Nation could convert its year-long surge in the polls to electoral success and win its first seat in the lower house since the party's founding.
While party leader Pauline Hanson was an MP in the lower house when she founded the populist party in 1997, she was voted in as an independent after the Liberal Party disendorsed her as a candidate.
Likewise, the party's only other lower house presence since its founding, Barnaby Joyce, wasn't elected as a One Nation MP. He joined the party after defecting from the Nationals late last year.
"The nation's looking for change, and Farrer's screaming out for change, so today is very, very important," Farley had told reporters ahead of the result.
"I've got three clear jobs to do: I've got to win today, I've got to make sure we're ready for the next election and I want to help Pauline Hanson and her team build a powerful political party for Australia."
Political analysts had warned a win for One Nation would represent bad news for the Coalition's future, as it continues to bleed votes to its alternative right-wing rival.
In the closely watched South Australian state election in March, Labor — which did not join the contest in Farrer — secured a landslide victory with 37.5 per cent primary vote according to the ABC's tally.
However, One Nation saw a massive uptick in its primary vote, coming in second with 22.9 per cent, comfortably ahead of the Liberal Party at 18.9 per cent.
The result was seen as an ominous sign for the Coalition, which has struggled to regain its footing following its resounding 2025 federal election loss, multiple internal leadership changes and two splits in the National-Liberal coalition agreement.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan, who has been campaigning for weeks in Farrer, said on Friday that "there's no doubt people want to give the political class a kick, and this is a bit of a free kick".
"Win, lose or draw, the great thing is being here to hear that response, to cop it on the chin, to take my medicine. I'm willing to do that."
Taylor, on Saturday morning, vowed to fight to the end with Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski, saying they were committed to the "important issues" facing locals.
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