As the Christmas ornaments are hung, down at Canberra’s Treasury building, numbers are being crunched.
On Thursday, the half-yearly financial check-up on the Australian economy is being delivered. Its full title is the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO).
This year’s document is full of pre-flagged promises, including a projection that a million new jobs will be created over the next four years.
That’s an increase of 150,000 jobs on the previous estimate.
Treasury is setting the expectation, suggesting the unemployment rate will dip to 4.5 per cent by halfway through next year.
In 2023, Treasury expects the jobless rate will sink to 4.25 per cent.
If that does happen, it will signal a return to the low unemployment period before the Global Financial Crisis.
“Saving jobs and creating jobs is a top economic priority,” Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says.
The Treasurer is releasing a document designed to ward off a Labor election campaign focused on hip pocket issues.
“The Labor party has repeatedly said ‘the biggest test of this government's management of the recession and its aftermath will be what happens to jobs’ and ‘whether or not unemployment stays too high for too long’.”
“Only the Labor party will be disappointed by the strong labour market outlook presented in MYEFO after years of talking down the economy as Australia recovers from this once in a century pandemic.”
Labor's treasury spokesperson Jim Chalmers was still warning of problems on Wednesday.
“We want to make sure that as the economy recovers Australian working families aren't getting absolutely smashed by the skyrocketing cost of living at the same time as their real wages are going backwards,” Mr Chalmers said.
“The Prime Minister says he doesn't look in the rear vision mirror and that's because he doesn't want to see all of those Australians that he's left behind.”
Treasury has also upgraded the forecasts for wages growth in MYEFO, now expected to forecast increases over the next four years.
It’s predicting a pay rise of about 3.5 per cent each year.
But when you look at the 3.8 per cent inflation rate in the second quarter of this year, there is a risk that boost could be entirely consumed by rising costs.
Anna Henderson is the chief political correspondent for SBS News.
