With Liberal leader Sussan Ley facing a leadership ballot at 9am on Friday, she may not find much optimism in an examination of the party's recent challenges for the top spot.
Former Opposition defence spokesperson Angus Taylor confirmed he would challenge in a social media post on Thursday, following his resignation from the frontbench on Wednesday.
"I think we need strong and decisive leadership that gives Australians clarity, courage and confidence in providing vision for the future," he said.
"We’re running out of time, and Australia is worth fighting for."
Just minutes after Taylor's social media post, Ley posted a smiling photo on X, saying: "We will take the pressure off families, fix the budget, and keep Australia safe."
Ley will be hoping to hold onto party numbers to buck a losing trend.
What does history say about Liberal leadership spills?
Since 2008, there have been five leadership spills in the federal Liberal Party — Friday's challenge will be the sixth — and the result has been positive for the incumbent just once.
In 2008, Malcom Turnbull beat then leader Brendan Nelson 45-41, less than a year after Nelson was installed as leader of the party.
The years 2015 and 2018 were times of leadership turmoil for the party. In February 2015, a motion to bring about a leadership spill in the Liberal Party was defeated 61–39, with Tony Abbott remaining as prime minister. But in September, he lost his position 54 votes to 44 to Malcolm Turnbull in a spill.
In 2018, there were two leadership spills in the space of a week.
On 21 August, then-prime minister Turnbull defeated Peter Dutton after calling a spill following reports Dutton would challenge for the leadership.
Three days later, after ongoing instability within the party, Dutton called for another leadership spill. Turnbull did not contest the leadership this time. His supporters Julie Bishop and Scott Morrison ran against Dutton and after a second round of voting Morrison beat Dutton 45-40 to become new leader and prime minister.
This is not the first time Ley and Taylor have competed for the party leadership.
Ley became party leader when she beat Taylor 29-25 in a May 2025 leadership election following the Coalition's heavy election defeat that month, in which leader Peter Dutton lost his seat.
With the retirement of two senators and the removal of Gisele Kapterian from the party room, since then, circumstances have changed for Ley.
What is happening in the party room?
Several Liberal Party frontbenchers have resigned, increasing the possibility they will support Taylor in the vote.
James Paterson was the first Liberal heavyweight to publicly back Angus Taylor's leadership.
He expressed concern there would be nothing left of the Liberal Party after 2.1 million Australians had deserted the Coalition, according to the latest Newspoll results.
"That's more than 200,000 votes a month. It's more than 50,000 votes a week. It's more than 7,000 votes a day," he told reporters in Canberra on Thursday.
Jonathon Duniam, Leah Blyth, Phil Thompson, Claire Chandler, Matt O'Sullivan, Michaelia Cash, Dan Tehan and James McGrath, a prominent moderate, are other frontbenchers who have stepped down.
Senator Jess Collins, who is not on the frontbench, has also expressed her opposition to Ley's leadership.
Most of the party's moderates have been somewhat more reserved. Senator Dave Sharma, for example, mentioned he wouldn't disclose who he'd support before the vote.
"I respect both individuals, Sussan and Angus, and I respect both of their abilities and achievements, and to me the most important thing is resolve this issue," he said.
On the other hand, some party members have expressed support for Ley.
Opposition legal affairs spokesperson Andrew Wallace said: "I support Sussan Ley, I think she has done a very good job, under very difficult circumstances, she hasn't been the leader for 12 months yet."
"Being the leader of the Opposition, particularly coming off the back of two pretty significant electoral defeats, it has to be the toughest job in politics."
Opposition housing spokesperson Andrew Bragg also gave his support for Ley.
"I think most Australians would look at it [the spill] and say this person [Ley] hasn't even given a year in the job, I think it is a reasonable proposition to be given a year to show you can do the job," he said.
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