In brief
- There are 18 people in the line of succession if a US president dies or is incapacitated.
- At least 13 of them were at a gala dinner where a gunman allegedly tried to kill Donald Trump.
On Sunday, when a gunman allegedly tried to assassinate United States President Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner, five of the top six people in the presidential line of succession were in the same room.
Alongside Trump at the black-tie gala were vice president JD Vance, house speaker Mike Johnson, secretary of state Marco Rubio, treasury secretary Scott Bessent and defence secretary Pete Hegseth.
According to a manifesto allegedly belonging to the 31-year-old suspect Cole Thomas Allen, they too were targets and prioritised from "highest-ranking to lowest".
Allegedly armed with guns and knives, Allen charged through a security checkpoint but was apprehended by US Secret Service agents before he made it to the ballroom of the Washington Hilton, where the dinner was being held.
Trump and other top officials were uninjured and whisked away to safety.
Had Trump and other high-ranking officials been killed, the US could have faced one of the most severe political crises in modern history, with much of the presidential line of succession no longer alive.
The incident has already prompted a review of the president's security arrangements, with the White House confirming a "designated survivor" was not chosen for the event.
David Smith, an associate professor at the United States Studies Centre, told SBS News it was "very rare" to have events in which the president, vice president and speaker of the house were together.
"Usually it's only the State of the Union address," he said, noting the president and vice president also travel on separate planes.
It raises the question: What happens if the president and other key officials die or are incapacitated?
Who is in the line of succession?
US law lays out a clear line of succession in the event the president is killed or otherwise incapacitated.
If that did happen, the vice president — currently JD Vance — would assume the presidency, serve out the remainder of Trump's term and nominate a new vice president.
If both Trump and Vance were incapacitated, house speaker Mike Johnson would step in, followed by president pro tempore of the senate, a largely ceremonial post typically held by the longest-serving member from the majority party.
That role is currently held by senator Chuck Grassley, a 92-year-old who was the highest-ranking official in the line of succession not in attendance at the dinner.
Various cabinet positions are next, with a total of 18 officials in the line of succession. According to CNN, 13 of them were at the dinner.
All are currently Republicans except health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, who is 12th in line and an independent.
During part of Trump's first term, Democrat and fierce Trump critic Nancy Pelosi became second in line to the presidency after she was elected house speaker following the Democrats' victory in the 2018 mid-term elections.
What is a designated survivor?
Events such as the September 11 terror attack in 2001 have raised the possibility of the entire line of succession being killed or incapacitated if they gathered in a single place.
As a precaution, a "designated survivor" has been occasionally chosen from the line of succession and does not attend high-profile events where other officials are gathered.
Instead, they stay in an undisclosed location away from the event under Secret Service protection.
This includes the State of the Union address and presidential inaugurations, as well as other major gatherings such as conservative commentator Charlie Kirk's funeral.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed discussions were held about choosing a designated survivor for the gala, but it was deemed "not necessary" as several members in the line of succession were not in attendance.
The US government does not reveal how a designated survivor is chosen but in a 2016 interview, former president Barack Obama's top speech writer Jon Favreau revealed the selection was "entirely random".
However, if a State of the Union address focused heavily on a particular policy area, Favreau said the relevant cabinet secretary would not be chosen, as was the case for former education secretary Arne Duncan.
The continuity plan inspired the US television series Designated Survivor, in which the housing secretary unexpectedly becomes president after an explosion kills everyone ahead of him in the line of succession.
The practice reportedly dates back to the Cold War when the US government was concerned about continuity in the event of a nuclear strike by the Soviet Union.
Eight US presidents have died in office — four from assassination, and four from natural causes. In all cases, the vice president assumed the presidency.
Does Australia have a line of succession?
Smith told SBS News the US government's continuity plans differ from those of other democracies, such as Australia, because the executive branch of government is separate from the legislature.
In Australia, the prime minister is the leader of the political party or coalition that has a majority in the House of Representatives.
If the prime minister dies, the deputy prime minister would typically be appointed caretaker prime minister by the governor-general until the governing party votes on a new leader.
"Parliament, very clearly, has a mechanism for fairly quickly replacing them," Smith said.
"Whereas in the United States, the president and the vice president are elected, but then everybody else in the cabinet is appointed by them."
The prime minister can also authorise others to exercise their powers if they are overseas, absent or otherwise unable to perform their duties.
After last year’s federal election, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese authorised, in order, the Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher and Trade Minister Don Farrell to exercise prime ministerial powers.
Three Australian prime ministers have died in office: Joseph Lyons in 1939, John Curtin in 1945 and Harold Holt in 1967. Lyons and Curtin died from natural causes, while Holt disappeared while swimming in the sea, presumed drowned.
In all three cases, a caretaker prime minister was sworn in before the leadership was put to a vote.
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