Who will win the FIFA World Cup? Why Australia could go further than you think

Every World Cup sparks debate and bold predictions. We asked the SBS team to pick the champion, underdog and Australia's fate.

With 48 teams competing, the stakes have been raised at this year's FIFA World Cup. Source: AAP / AP

Can reigning champions Argentina go back-to-back? Can the Netherlands finally end its decades-long World Cup curse? And just how far can tiny Curaçao go?

Those are burning questions on the minds of football fans as we head into this year's FIFA World Cup, with an expanded 48-team tournament likely to deliver more story lines, drama and fairy-tale finishes than ever before.

So who will lift football's biggest prize?

Spain, second under FIFA's World ranking, is widely tipped to take home the trophy, while Argentina (first), France (third), England (fourth), Portugal (fifth) and Brazil (sixth) are also considered top contenders.

But every World Cup delivers upsets, such as Saudi Arabia, then ranked 51st, beating eventual champions Argentina 2-1 during their opening group match at the 2022 World Cup.

There have been 22 World Cups, but only eight winners, all from Europe and South America. Could this year see someone new?

The expert team at SBS — Australia's spiritual home of football and the official World Cup broadcaster — has made its predictions on who will be crowned world champions.

• All the FIFA World Cup 2026 coverage on our World Cup page
• How to watch the FIFA World Cup 2026 on SBS
• Watch all 104 matches of the FIFA World Cup 2026 at our On Demand hub

John Baldock — Sport reporter

John is tipping Spain to win, having gone out on penalties in the last two tournaments. Source: SBS

Teams supporting: England and Australia

Favourite: Spain

"It's really wide open but there has been but there has been a nagging sense in the back of my mind that it's going to be Spain, partly because they've got a great squad, but also the fact that they've lost the last two World Cups, been knocked out of the last two World Cups on penalties, and I just think any team which loses any game on penalties is within a whisker of winning a game."

Underdog to watch: Senegal

"Senegal is a team which I think has, for a number of years, always impressed and always entertained. If they can spring a surprise against France in the opening game, who knows what that could inspire in them and could they go even further."

How far will Australia go?

"The recent inclusion of Cristian Volpato has thrown a real wildcard factor in there, and I do think already we had hopes for our forward line actually firing and getting us into ... at least the knockout stages."

Breanna Holden — Presenter

With a breadth of talent and depth, Breanna is tipping France to win. Source: SBS

Teams supporting: Australia

Favourite: France

"Not only do they have an incredible depth of talent, but they also have a lot of players who play the same style, which means there is a lot of room for movement.

"If someone isn't available or someone isn't playing their best, there are so many options to slot in there."

Underdog to watch: Senegal, Japan

"I would love for Senegal to be a bit of an upset team, for them to get deep into this competition but they have an incredibly hard group. So if they can make it out of that group, I think they could potentially be a bit of a bolter.

"I also think Japan are an underdog that maybe people are sleeping on. They have a few key injuries, but they're also Japan, and we see them every single time in the World Cup show up and really create a lot of problems for teams. No one knows quite how to handle them."

How far will Australia go?

Round of 32 or 16

Patrick Nugent — Sport digital lead

Pat says New Zealand could pose a few threats at this tournament. Source: SBS

Teams supporting: Australia

Favourite: Brazil

"Not many people are talking about them at the moment.

"It'll be a huge upset but I think it's their time with Neymar ... being involved in his fourth World Cup.

Underdog to watch: Australia, New Zealand

"New Zealand can ... pose a few threats and actually upset quite a few teams."

How far will Australia go? Round of 16

"Almost three teams get out of every group [under the expanded 48-team format], so I think they'll get through to the Round of 32.

"Then they can actually win that game, get through to the Round of 16 as they did last time."

Yumi Oba — SBS Japanese

Yumi says Japan could be a dark horse at this year's tournament. Source: SBS

Teams supported: Japan and Australia

Favourite: Spain, Netherlands or France

Underdog to watch: Japan

"Putting all biases aside, I think Japan is a dark horse, and while I didn't predict them to be in the finals, I think there might be a possibility of them going to the top four."

How far will Australia go?

"The best the Socceroos have done is the Round of 16, and I feel like that's where they might be going, possibly even higher."

Paulien Roessink — SBS Dutch

Dutch supporter Paulien (left) says Australia and Japan are the underdogs to watch. Source: Supplied

Teams supported: Netherlands

Favourite: France

Underdog to watch: Australia, Japan

How far will Australia go?

"The group phase is gonna be easy peasy, I think then the [Round of 32] also, I think they can do that, then I think it might end for them."

Roberto Arocha Carreño — Sport reporter

Roberto says Australia can make it to the quarter-finals. Source: SBS

Teams supported: Mexico

Favourite: France or Spain

Underdog to watch: Scotland, Australia

How far will Australia go?

"They're going to go deep into the tournament, they're going to excite everyone here in Australia, and they're going past to the quarter-finals."

You can watch all 104 matches of the FIFA World Cup 2026™ live, free and exclusive on SBS, SBS VICELAND and SBS On Demand.

FIFA World Cup 2026™ at SBS On Demand: get match ready.

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