British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a career-defining decision: step down or fight a challenge from Labour Party rival Andy Burnham. If Keir Starmer quits, he will be the sixth prime minister to leave office in the past 10 years.
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TRANSCRIPT
For the past decade at least at number ten Downing Street in London, two things have been certain: the appearance of resident official Mouser Larry the Cat - and a regular turnover of Prime Ministers at the official residence.
The current occupant is Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.
Starmer led the center-left Labour party to a landslide election win in 2024 -
''Good afternoon. I have just returned from Buckingham Palace, where I accepted an invitation from His Majesty the King to form the next government of this great nation."
But Starmer has become unpopular after a series of scandals and policy U-turns - and he's been under increasing pressure to step down for the past several months.
About a quarter of Starmer's colleagues have urged the prime minister to resign since his Labour Party last month suffered the heaviest local election losses of any governing party in more than three decades, largely due to a surge in support for Nigel Farage's anti-immigration party, Reform.
The threat increased sharply again on Friday when his rival won a seat in parliament via a crucial by-election in the northern England seat of Makerfield, finishing with 54.8 percent of the vote ahead of the candidate for Nigel Farage's party, who got 34.5 percent.
Acting Returning Officer Alison McKenzie-Folan: "And I do hereby declare that Andy Burnham is duly elected. Thank you.”
The new MP has repeatedly confirmed he wants Starmer's job.
"It is our last chance to change but we're going to take it, aren't we? We're going to take that opportunity and we are going to lay out a new path for Britain."
But how that happens is still anyone's guess.
Queen Mary University of London politics professor Tim Bale certainly believes - as others do - that Burnham’s win in the by-election is going to set in motion a chain of events that could lead to an end of the premiership of Keir Starmer.
"There will be all sorts of talks behind closed doors, mainly I suspect people trying to persuade Keir Starmer, the current Prime Minister, that the game is up and it's not worth him fighting a leadership contest against a candidate Andy Burnham who is clearly going to beat him."
A report in the Observer newspaper has suggested Starmer has already decided his time is up and that he plans to announce his resignation.
Yet the public statements of the PM himself contradict this.
"I've said I don't know how many times that I'm not going to walk away. I feel very strongly that I must serve the people who put me into office."
Failing a resignation, that means the other likely option is a leadership challenge.
Reuters UK correspondent Alistair Smout says Andy Burnham is under pressure of his own to make a move while he can.
"He needs the support of 81 Labour MPs in order to force a leadership contest - and the clock is ticking if he wants to get that done before Parliament breaks for recess over the summer in the middle of July."
Once Starmer is gone, he will be the sixth prime minister to leave office in the past 10 years.
Experts says that rate of turnover is extraordinary.
But British pollster John Curtice says the wider problem for Labour is facing not just Starmer's drop in popularity but finding a viable alternative to Nigel Farage's anti-immigration party.
“Mr Burnham has provided as much evidence as any Labour MP could expect from a by-election as to his potential ability to take the challenge to Reform and to fight an electoral strategy and frame an appeal that enables Labour to be competitive with Reform. And that, above all, is what many a Labour MP is seeking."
It may also be a matter of managing the fallout from the political turmoil.
Tim Bale says that quitting may not be what Starmer wants to do - but he may ultimately have no other options.
"Of course, no Prime Minister really wants to leave at a time that's not of their own choosing but we've seen you know for decades really of British politics that people rarely get that opportunity once your party and particularly your cabinet decides that your time is up. Then you are best off going quietly."
