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One Nation secures first ever lower house seat outside Queensland. What does this mean for the Coalition?

PAULINE HANSON SENATE

One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson in the Senate chamber at Parliament House in Canberra, Thursday, March 12, 2026. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas) NO ARCHIVING Source: AAP / AAP

The South Australian election has triggered a federal political crisis, with One Nation displacing the Liberals as the primary alternative to Labor and securing its most significant electoral foothold in nearly 30 years. As the Coalition grapples with whether to pivot right to reclaim regional voters or overhaul its suburban appeal, the result has forced a panicked Parliament House to recognise the populist surge as a permanent disruption to the traditional political order.


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TRANSCRIPT

Pauline Hanson's One Nation has secured its first-ever lower house seat outside of Queensland.

In a move closely watched by federal party leaders, Adelaide Plains Council Deputy Mayor David Paton is poised to enter South Australia's parliament as the member for Ngadjuri.

Federal strategists are analysing the impact of the latest count.

This shows One Nation leading Labor by 5.6 percentage points following a Liberal Party recommendation to preference One Nation over Labor.

As One Nation remains in contention in regional seats like Hammond, MacKillop, and Narungga, Federal representatives are bracing for a shift in regional dynamics.

From Parliament house, Senator Hanson says she is excited about the result.

"I'm excited. Fantastic news, and it's great news for the people of South Australia now they'll have real representation. I mean, you know, accountability and push back. They never had it with the with the Liberal Party, so I'm very pleased about it."

This is One Nation's best electoral result in nearly 30 years.

The result in South Australia shows the Liberal Party is not only losing it's votes, it's losing it's long-held place in the political establishment.

The surge of the right-wing populist party is indicative of more than a temporary polling spike.

In South Australia, One Nation surged to 21.6% of the primary vote.

This displaced the Liberals (18.7%) as the second-most popular party and securing a projected four seats.

Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party Jane Hume says there is no point in sugar-coating the results on the weekend.

She says that the swing towards One Nation is a protest vote.

"I think that it was a protest vote against the status quo. People are rightly aggrieved when your interest rates are going up, when inflation has run out of control for too long and has not been tamed, when your standard of living is going backwards and now you're seeing pain at the petrol pump as well. People are looking to send a message, and they sent that message loud and clear on Saturday for the coalition, we've heard that message, and we will ensure that when it comes to the next election, that we present the policies and the platforms that will deliver them a genuine alternative. Because let's face it, One Nation having been around for now 30 years are yet to have ever delivered a budget. They haven't delivered a hospital, they haven't delivered a road."

When Newspoll first reported earlier this year that One Nation was pulling ahead of the Liberals, there was scepticism about whether this would translate at the ballot box.

However, Senator Hume says the One Nation Party is fundamentally unequipped to govern.

"No wonder people are angry. But the Coalition is where people can put their votes and trust their votes that will ensure an effective and a stable government that will improve the situation, rather than simply sending a message. Because if you send a message without having it changed the outcome. What's the point?"

South Australian Senator Leah Blyth, the Shadow Assistant Minister for Defence Infrastructure, admitted that the One Nation surge has left her questioning whether policy remains the primary driver for the modern electorate.

She asks the question: In the context of righteous anger; does policy really matter?

 "Looking at the vote of One nation, I wonder how much policy really matters. I think people were angry. That's certainly what I felt out on the polling booth. They're really disappointed in us. They're disappointed in labor as well. And while Labor has had a landslide win, their primary vote is still, you know, has a three in front of it."

One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce says the Liberal party is panicking.

He says that with a result this significant, the political establishment can no longer dismiss One Nation as a mere protest party.

Mr Joyce says One Nation is a serious force that the establishment has to reckon with.

 "It shows panic, what we've seen on the weekend. It's a clear endorsement by the people of South Australia. One Nation vote is higher than the coalition's higher than the Liberal Party. And this idea that one nation's just a protest party, well, quite obviously, people don't think they are. I think they're a viable alternative to vote for. And people say, Oh, well, One Nation's just going to split the conservative vote. Well, apparently the Liberal Party just split one nation's vote. Maybe the Liberal Party should get out of the way and just let one nation do it. And if you're going for an endorsement of opposition, you can get no better than Peter malanakis, who is all he could talk about was one nation. Obviously, he sees it as the pertinent threat. He sees it as the authentic opposition."

With One Nation now positioning this win as a springboard for upcoming federal contests, the major parties in Parliament House are being forced to rethink their regional strategies and the weight they give to protest votes.

Opposition leader Angus Taylor and the Coalition now confront an ideological dilemma, as they decide whether to chase One Nation to the right or attempt a radical overhaul to win back the suburban heartlands they’ve lost.


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