Listen to Australian and world news and follow trending topics with SBS News Podcasts.
TRANSCRIPT
Donald Trump has started 2026 with US military strikes on Venezuela, threats of an invasion into Greenland and a continuation of his administration's tariff trade war with friends and enemies alike.
While such shocks have become familiar during the controversial president’s two terms in office, they are increasingly testing the tolerance of America’s partners and prompting fresh questions in Australia.
Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, highlighted these concerns in his address to the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this month.
"Every day we're reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer. And faced with this logic, there is a strong tendency for countries to go along to get along, to hope that compliance will buy safety. Well, it won't. So, what are our options?"
In response to President Trump's trade tariffs and his stated desire to make Canada the 51st state of the U-S, Mr Carney's government has chosen to move Canada away from its historically close relationship with its southern neighbour.
Dr Emma Shortis, director of the International and Security Affairs Program at The Australia Institute, is one of a number of foreign policy experts who argue it's time for Australia to do the same.
"This is a president who is unconstrained and who is incredibly dangerous. And for Australia to tie not only our own security, but the security of our region to that again, is incredibly risky and undermines our regional relationships. That risk will only increase as Australia remains tied to this rogue power that is going to continue acting out. There's not many universes in which Trump's behaviour becomes constructive."
A November YouGov poll, commissioned by The Australia Institute, suggests that only 16 per cent of Australians believe the United States is a “very reliable” security ally while a previous poll in May found that 54.2 per cent wanted a more independent foreign policy.
So what has led so many to question an alliance that has defined much of modern Australian history?
The economy and national security are two key pillars of the US-Australia relationship often cited by Labor and the Coalition.
Dr Shortis argues the economic relationship with the US has become increasingly volatile under President Trump.
"The Trump administration has ripped up Australia's free trade agreement with the United States. It is trashing all the rules of global trade, which were of course imperfect, but which for the most part benefited Australia and created prosperity in Australia. Trump is trashing that and that is a risk to our security, our economic security."
Meanwhile, Greens Senator David Shoebridge has also been calling on the Albanese government to reconsider its relationship on national security grounds, arguing Australia's close alliance with America is a threat if a war with China were to break out.
"What we're doing at the moment is not making Australia safer. We're putting Australia on the new frontline if there is a conflict between China and the United States, and we're inviting ourselves into a conflict that is not our strategic conflict, that isn't based upon our values and isn't based on our national interests. So our relationship with the United States far from making us safer at the moment is inviting us to Donald Trump's next war."
Supporters of the alliance argue that, in a region marked by China’s growing military presence, the relationship with the US has become more important than ever.
Executive Director of the Institute of Public Affairs, Scott Hargreaves, says its naive to believe Australia could avoid conflict if China were to aggressively expand its influence in the Indo-Pacific.
"If we're talking about a scenario where China actually embarks on a series of military adventures, be it into Taiwan, which then brings it into the Japanese sphere of influence, the idea that Australia could simply sit that one out and would not be impacted merely by curling itself up into a ball is a plea for unilateral disarmament. I think it's worse than naive to believe that simply by jettisoning the US alliance we could sit this one out. Our trade routes, our trading relationships would all be tied up with any conflict. And of course, by building up our own defence force, we're simply adding to the equation that the best way to maintain peace is with a credible deterrent."
In a recent Sky News interview, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the US remains Australia's closest strategic partner, most important security ally, and she insisted that this will remain the case in the future.
But Senator Shoebridge says in the wake of threats to Greenland and Venezuela's sovereignty by the US, the Albanese government needs to be doing an urgent reassessment to ensure Australia stands on the side of international law.
"It's extraordinary that at a time when we're seeing Australia's most dominant ally engage in repeated acts of lawlessness, that we've had almost silence from the federal government, the Labor Party. And I think millions of Australians though, are asking ourselves, well, how is it we're not reconsidering our relationship with the United States? And instead of doubling down on what is increasingly a rogue regime, looking at ways to decouple ourselves from the United States and to start standing proudly on our own two feet."
It can be difficult to understand what this decoupling of the US and Australia could look like.
Dr Emma Shortis says a first step from the federal government could be scrutinising the deals and alliances it holds with the US such as the AUKUS submarine deal, which could cost Australians up to $368 billion.
"So I think a starting point is with democratic accountability and scrutiny of the deals that we have with the United States in the first place. And I think what that could look like, for example, is a parliamentary inquiry into the AUKUS submarine deal, which the United Kingdom has had an inquiry, the United States has had its own review. There's no reason that Australia can't have a review of its own. That will bring up many questions I think about Australia's broader relationship with the United States issues of sovereignty and independence. And I think that can, I suppose, get the ball rolling in what a reframed relationship with the United States might mean."
What leaders like Canada's Mark Carney are pushing for is middle power countries like Canada and Australia to draw closer together in favour of orbiting a major power like the US or China.
"The middle powers must act together, because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu. But we believe that from the fracture, we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. This is the task of the middle powers, the countries that have the most to lose from a world of fortresses and most to gain from genuine cooperation."
Dr Shortis says this focus on interdependence is key.
"So building up our regional relationships in particular around climate action and around public health, around education, around the things that really do make us safer. And building our networks and relationships in that way, much in the way that Mark Carney described. Building coalitions, building alliances around shared interests and around shared values."
However, Mr Hargreaves from the Institute of Public Affairs says much of the appeal of Australia to its neighbours is its close connection to US power.
“We shouldn't underestimate the degree to which that matters to countries in the Asia-Pacific region that we are seen as part of an alliance structure with the USA and NATO countries. So the idea that this would somehow be an alternative to build relationships with random other middle ranking countries around the world, I think it is very naive and would actually detract from what is still our most important strategic alliance one which we should be nurturing just as we have for the past seven or eight decades."
While he did not name or criticise President Trump directly, the US leader did not take the Canadian Prime Minister's Davos speech well.
In response, he revoked Canada's invitation to join its so-called 'Board of Peace' initiative and threatened to impose a 100 per cent tariff on Canadian goods if they follow through on a trade deal with China.
Senator Shoebridge says it’s fair to say any step away from Australia's close relationship with the US could see a retaliation from President Trump.
"I think we could expect retaliatory action from the Trump regime. But I think that highlights the need to do it now. What that looks like is refusing to support a significant part of Australia's military hardware, which has been purchased from US arms contractors. But when it comes to tariffs, if the United States wants to engage in a tariff war with Australia, that would be an exercise in extreme self-harm to the United States. It's a relationship that on the trade level greatly favours the United States."
