A new report by the Climate Council has projected that sea level rise will threaten more than 267,000 Australian properties over the next century. Rising sea levels are forecast to impact every state and the Northern Territory, with researchers saying coastal Queensland is at particular risk.
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TRANSCRIPT
The turquoise waters and white sands of the Gold Coast have long attracted Australians seeking a sea-change.
But that proximity to the coast could come at a cost, according to the Climate Council's Rising Seas, Rising Bills report.
It projects that coastal flooding will cost Australia more than $855 billion this century, including property losses and land use damages.
The report also categorises the Queensland Gold Coast as the single most exposed urban area in Australia.
“Many coastal communities around Australia are already experiencing the impacts of sea level rise. We've had around about 22cm of sea level rise over the past century around Australia but also right around the globe. And that is having a big impact upon communities already, especially when we get very high tides and when we get storm surges. So, storms forcing the water up against the coast as well.”
That's Andrew Watkins, an adjunct professor at Monash University's School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment.
He's also a co-author of the Climate Council's new report, which analysed the consequences of sea level rise based on a quote "conservative scenario" where countries only implement existing policies to cut pollution.
Scientists say they are confident that sea levels will rise by at least 14cm by the year 2050.
“As our sea levels rise, because of the warming oceans, but also because we're melting ice sheets in Antarctica and also Greenland as well. We've already seen many impacts along the coast already, with erosion in places like Lancelin in Western Australia, Robe in South Australia, Byron Bay in New South Wales, the Gold Coast during tropical cyclone Alfred and even Inverloch down here in Victoria.”
The Gold Coast is considered the canal capital of Australia.
It also features the largest constructed canal network in the Southern Hemisphere, with more than 400km of constructed waterways.
Mr Watkins says that design puts the city at heightened risk.
“Well, the Gold Coast is fairly low-lying; it's not very high above sea level there. It's also a soft coast; it's got a sandy coast that can easily be eroded away. Now, estuaries and canals are also another way that sea level rise and extreme sea levels can actually go inland and attack the coast from behind.”
Those findings stirring a mixed response from locals in the community.
Voxie 1: "If we did have a big flooding incident, I could well have problems in my area."
Voxie 2: "It's just about being aware of it and doing the precautions, like the sandbagging out the front of the shop; it doesn't happen very often though.
Voxie 3 & 4: "It completely eroded after the cyclone and after the tornado. Yeah, it was a mess, they've lost a lot of sand."
Voxie 5: "I have been flooded out before, years ago.”
Mark MacCabe has long resided in the Gold Coast, where he also works as a principal licensee and real estate auctioneer.
“It's been this way for years. People are buying on the Gold Coast, they're buying on the northern end of the Gold Coast, they want to be surrounded by the water. They're aware that storm surges happen, they're aware of what the possibilities of disasters are. But the reality is, I've lived here for 26 years and I've never seen anything more than a little bit of water and a surging tide coming up onto the gutters.”
Mr MacCabe says part of his job involves preparing new homeowners about higher insurance premiums associated with the region.
“You know, obviously, being in a floodplain, insurance costs have more than doubled in the last five years. So, there's no doubt - there's no running away from that - but the fact is that buyers don't care. If you're buying on the Gold Coast now, there's a legislative requirement called a local law 17A, which says we need to make everyone aware for events where the water meets the land.”
The Climate Council predicts that extreme sea level events considered rare today will become more frequent and more intense.
And it's not just coastal communities, with sea level rise expected to hit every state as well as the Northern Territory.
The report also specifies that most private insurers don't cover "actions of the sea", meaning property owners could bear the costs of flooding.
Earlier this month, the United Nations warned the world is likely to pass the 1.5°C global warming threshold by 2030.
“Humanity is speeding past the limit to avoid climate catastrophe. Ten years ago in Paris, leaders pledged to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C — the threshold scientists say is critical to avoiding the worst climate devastation. The latest report from the UN Environment Programme delivers a stark warning: The world is failing to keep that promise.”
That's Antonio Guterres, the United Nations Secretary-General.
Speaking on behalf of the UN Environment Programme, Mr Guterres called for urgent action to minimise the magnitude and duration of this overshoot.
“That demands an overshoot of ambition: Accelerating the phaseout of fossil fuels and the renewables revolution; slashing methane pollution; and protecting land, forest and oceans. Governments must over-deliver on national climate plans, net zero commitments and beyond.”
August was the joint-hottest month ever recorded, according to the European's Climate Service.
Samantha Burgess is the strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
She says the Earth was one-hundredth of a degree Celsius away from the highest monthly global temperature recorded in July 2023.
“So, it's extremely unusual to have August as the hottest month. The fact that August 2026 has matched the hottest month ever observed means the climate system, our climate system, is really operating well outside the range we would have expected just a decade ago. And this summer is also the warmest summer on record, so we've seen an exceptional few months.”
The result was also compounded by El Niño weather patterns, which are being fuelled by warming waters in the Pacific.
El Niño is forecast to intensify over the coming months and persist through to February 2027.
Mr Watkins says his research contributes to a growing body of evidence about the impacts of a warming planet.
He's calling on Australia to adapt and act now.
“We really need to look at the climate change and the sea level rise that's locked in, and we need to adapt to those locked-in changes that we know are going to happen right through to the end of the century. In this report, we have put some dollar values on that to really highlight what's at risk if we don't make changes, if we don't mitigate the greenhouse gases and also, if we don't adapt.”
