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TRANSCRIPT
The Islamic Republic of Iran have been a geopolitical thorn in the side of the United States since its establishment with the overthrow of the Shah of Iran in 1979.
Many are the US administrations who have longed to rid Iran of its ayatollahs - and many will now see a chance to do so after the decapitation strike that killed Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
But if the ayatollahs go... who replaces them, and how?
It's much more complex question than it might seem at first.
In his address after the first attack, US President Donald Trump urged the Iranian people to rise up and kick the entire government out.
It could be a best-case scenario for Mr Trump, perhaps fuelled by recent scenes of internal dissent in Iran before the conflict.
However, the Project Director at the International Crisis Group in Geneva, Ali Vaez, warns that it's an aim more based in fantasy than reality.
“Now, for President Trump, I don't think he has a regime change or a day-after strategy, he has a wish or a hope that by degrading the Iranian state's repressive capacity, the Iranian people can come to the streets and take the matters into their own hands. But this is wishful thinking, because the Iranian regime is deeply entrenched, deeply benched and, in contrast, the Iranian people are unarmed, unorganised, fragmented and don't have the kind of leadership that is required to be able to hold the country together.”
The latest attacks on Iran are a co-production of the United States and its close ally, Israel.
Perhaps the only country to have a worse relationship with Iran - post-1979 - than the United States, is Israel.
A stated objective of the Islamic Republic is to wipe Israel off the map, and Israel continues to insist Iran's nuclear program is a threat to their existence, despite Iran continuing to deny it's building a nuclear weapon.
Mr Vaez warns that the United States and Israel, despite their co-operation, may not be entirely of one mind with what they ultimately want to happen in Iran.
“The Trump administration most likely wants a regime transformation outcome here, that now with the elimination of the supreme leader, whoever emerges on the top, would do a Venezuela type, Delcy Rodriguez's arrangement with the Trump administration in which they would accept US terms capitulate and start doing US's bidding without necessarily regime change. But it appears that Israel's objective is at minimum regime change, at best regime collapse or destabilisation of the country so that Iran would be internally focused and would not be able to challenge Israel in the region.”
Officially, Khamanei had no heir.
Under the Islamic Republic's system, an assembly of experts will pick the next supreme leader.
Mr Vaez cautions that the Islamic Republic system is about more than just those at the apex of it, like the late Ali Khamenei.
“Look, so the Islamic Republic is a system, it was never really a one-man show. And Ayatollah Khamenei was representing a consensual view within that system. It is true that at the end of the day he had the final say, but his worldview, I think, has outlived him."
In the wake of Khamenei's death, some Iranian dissidents around the world have called for Reza Pahlavi, the son of last Shah of Iran, to return and take over the country again.
Alex Vatanka is the Senior Fellow at the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
He says a completely new Iranian government may end up being a collaborative effort between expat Iranians, and those still in the country.
"Best case scenario is that the decapitation strategy that the United States and Israel are pursuing creates such a vacuum at the top that you need really a new set of leaders to come in, a very different set of leaders to come in. Some of them could emerge from what's left of the regime. They would have to link up with the opposition outside the country that seems to have a much clearer vision in terms of what a different Iran going forward would look like."
Dr Dara Conduit is a Senior Lecturer in Political Science at the University of Melbourne.
She warns that the US and Israel, powerful as they are, may not have the military nor political support to get exactly what they want in Iran.
"Regime change can't take place from the air. That's pretty clear. And, at the moment, the United States and Israel don't have the capacity to do that, to mount a war on the ground. That takes enormous preparation, a build-up of troops. And I don't think President Trump has the political support for that kind of war, either."
