President for life? Putin's options when his term ends in 2024

As Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Vladimir Putin on his landslide re-election, Xi has drawn a comparison with Putin as the Chinese leader has consolidated power and gained a path to indefinite rule - a path, experts say, is one Putin may consider for 2024.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a rally of his supporters at Manezhnaya Square near the Moscow's Kremlin, Russia, March 18, 2018.

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Source: Getty

In power for almost two decades, Vladimir Putin predictably won a fourth Kremlin term in Russia's presidential election on Sunday, extending his long rule for another six years.

On Monday the central election commission confirmed Putin had won in a landslide victory, receiving 76.67 percent of the vote with 99.8 percent of ballots counted.

With no successor and no political competition, what are the possible scenarios when his term ends in 2024?

Leaving power

Without constitutional reform, Putin will not be able to run for the fifth time - Russian law forbids serving more than two consecutive terms.

Putin, who will turn 72 in 2024, could decide to leave the Kremlin after 24 years in power, making way for a successor.

Russian politics is currently dominated by infighting between rival clans of technocrats and the "siloviki" - representatives of the security services and the army.

Putin has been re-elected as Russian president
Putin has been re-elected as Russian president. Source: AAP


"There is already a fight for influence," said independent analyst Nikolai Petrov. "Nobody will wait passively, each group will try to promote its interests," he added.

In a recent interview with American TV channel NBC, Putin said he has been thinking of a potential successor since 2000.

"There is no harm in thinking about it but at the end of the day it will be the Russian people who decide."

But in making sure no one can compete with him, no political personality is currently popular enough to succeed Putin. Many analysts say Putin leaving power in six years is unlikely.

Switching roles

One way Putin could continue ruling Russia after 2024 is to stay in power in a different role.

The Russian strongman could revisit his move from 2008, which saw him put forward Dmitry Medvedev as president while he himself became prime minister before returning to the Kremlin in 2012.

"Putin may prepare the regime for a transfer of power. But not from Putin to another president but from Putin to Putin in some other role," said Petrov.




But memories of mass protests in Moscow when Putin switched back with Medvedev and returned to the Kremlin may put the Russian leader off this option.

Putin's age also makes this scenario problematic. In 2030, the next time Putin is constitutionally allowed to run for another term, he will be 78.

Could Putin become president for life?

Putin could choose to follow China's Xi Jinping in abolishing presidential term limits, thus allowing him to remain president for life.

"I don't think he will refuse power in 2024 even if he has had enough, he is (already) visibly tired," said political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin.

Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has congratulated Putin for his re-election. Source: AP


"He can't leave because he does not believe that anyone will protect him," he added, saying that Putin has built a system in which everything depends on who is at the top.

So far, Putin has ruled out ruling Russia for life.

"I never changed the constitution, especially for it to benefit me and I do not have this kind of intention today," he told NBC in March.

Oreshkin said Putin does not want to be remembered for changing the constitution and that if he were to remain president for life, it would be done "more elegantly" than in China.

On Monday President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin on his re-election, saying Beijing was willing to work with Moscow to bring ties to a "higher level".

Putin's landslide win came one day after China's parliament unanimously re-appointed Xi to a second term.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a rally of his supporters at Manezhnaya Square near the Moscow's Kremlin, Russia, March 18, 2018.
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Source: Getty


Xi has drawn a comparison with Putin as the Chinese leader has consolidated power and gained a path to indefinite rule after the rubber-stamp National People's Congress lifted presidential term limits last week.

"Currently, the China-Russia comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership is at the best level in history, which sets an example for building a new type of international relations," Xi said in a congratulatory message to Putin, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

"China is willing to work with Russia to keep promoting China-Russia relations to a higher level, provide driving force for respective national development in both countries, and promote regional and global peace and tranquillity," Xi said.


Share
4 min read

Published

Updated

Source: AFP, SBS

Tags

Share this with family and friends


Get SBS News daily and direct to your Inbox

Sign up now for the latest news from Australia and around the world direct to your inbox.

By subscribing, you agree to SBS’s terms of service and privacy policy including receiving email updates from SBS.

Download our apps
SBS News
SBS Audio
SBS On Demand

Listen to our podcasts
An overview of the day's top stories from SBS News
Interviews and feature reports from SBS News
Your daily ten minute finance and business news wrap with SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves.
A daily five minute news wrap for English learners and people with disability
Get the latest with our News podcasts on your favourite podcast apps.

Watch on SBS
SBS World News

SBS World News

Take a global view with Australia's most comprehensive world news service
Watch the latest news videos from Australia and across the world