In brief
- Travel disruptions are expected to continue for weeks as the war in the Middle East escalates.
- Experts are warning that those with tickets to Europe should have contingency plans in place.
War in the Middle East could cause disruptions to global travel for several months to come, as experts suggest popular holiday destinations will face pressure on price and capacity and the government stresses its unpredictability.
Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong has said that Australians "need to think very carefully about their travel plans" as the war in the Middle East continues to expand.
Asked on Channel 7’s Sunrise program on Thursday about the potential impact that the conflict could have on "Euro summer", Wong said that the conflict is "unpredictable".
"The conflict has spread much more quickly and much more widely than we anticipated, and I think than most governments anticipated," she told host Natalie Barr.
"We are a travelling nation, as can be demonstrated by how many people, Australians are currently in the Middle East and that's why my priority, our government's priority, is first to their safety and security," Wong said.
"This is a conflict zone."
The minister's comments land as the war in the Middle East intensifies, with Iranian and US-Israeli forces continuing to launch attacks across the region and beyond.
An Iranian warship, some 80km off the coast of Sri Lanka, was torpedoed by a US submarine this week, while Türkiye has claimed that NATO air defence forces shot down a ballistic missile headed for the capital, Ankara.
'Seriously reconsider'
Nearly half a million Australians are expected to make the annual pilgrimage to Europe for some sun during Australian winter, but experts are now cautioning that this conflict may mean putting those plans on pause — and definitely pausing upcoming Euro autumn trips.
Anyone with travel plans to Europe in the next four or five weeks should "seriously reconsider the need for travel", Gui Lohmann, professor of aviation at Edith Cowan University, told SBS News.
"Anyone still considering flying is seriously risking their safety but also to be stranded in different parts of the world," he said. "I think people just have to be a little bit more conscious of the risks and the costs when things don't go according to plan."
At present, airspace over Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain is closed and there are no flights over the UAE, while Jordan has partially closed its airspace.
That leaves narrow corridors over Saudi Arabia, which Lohmann cautions is not immune from the conflict, or Azerbaijan, which is very congested and takes passengers close to Ukraine.
"We saw the incident with the Malaysian Airlines flight in the past being hit by a Russian missile", Lohmann notes.
"We're not living in normal times. These are very unprecedented times".
Following strikes in the region on Sunday, Smartraveller updated its advice, urging Australians not to travel to Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar or the United Arab Emirates.
It continues to advise Australians not to travel to Iran, Iraq, Palestine, Syria or Yemen.
A limited number of airlines have resumed operations for stuck travellers, with Wong stressing commercial flights were the best avenue to leave the region.
The first Australia-bound commercial flight out of Dubai since war broke out between the US, Israel and Iran on Saturday touched down in Sydney late on Wednesday night, with more than 200 Australians on board. A second commercial flight from Dubai will land in Sydney on Friday evening.
'Most serious situation since COVID'
Professor Ron Bartsch of Avlaw Aviation Consulting told SBS that he believes the disruption will "inevitably" lead to long-term rising air fares.
"I believe it's the most serious situation since COVID for airline operations", Bartsch said.
Aviation fuel is expected to climb in line with oil prices which have surged around the conflict. Benchmark crude is up roughly 30 per cent so far this year, Reuters reports, and the war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil travels.
The "multiplier effect" of air space closures and the suspension of operations in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Doha will be felt "for the forseeable" in those higher costs, Bartsch said.
The price of near-term flights between Europe and Asia has jumped sharply in recent days as passengers scramble to board extremely limited flights.
SBS Arabic spoke to an Australian man trying to return home from Saudi Arabia. The tickets for a 27-hour flight via Kuala Lumpur cost roughly $US2,000 ($2,850), he said.
Adam Zanaty says his friend, who is stranded in Lebanon, also managed to secure a ticket flying out of the country at a price of $US7,000 ($9,970).
With the Middle East, a major hub for travellers from Australia to Europe out of action — and an Iranian drone directly striking Dubai airport — Asian routing through Malaysia or Singapore is an alternative although capacity is not infinite.
Professor Sarah Gardiner, director of the Griffith Institute for Tourism, said that while the aviation industry is "quite resilient" now, the war in the Middle East is a "huge disruption to the system".
"There's obviously a limit in the system as to how much it can actually keep the global travel industry running at the same volume that it's running at the moment," she told SBS News.
The past year has been the busiest for international travel in history, with 9.8 billion passengers estimated to have caught a flight in 2025, up 5.3 per cent year on year, according to Airports Council International, a body that represents airport interests in policy-making.
Qantas is currently rerouting its nonstop flight from Perth to London via Singapore to ensure adequate fuel supplies for the journey.
Gardiner advised people who are travelling to consider the necessity of their trips and put contingency plans in place in case things do go wrong.
Don't cancel your flight
Bartsch said he does not believe passengers with tickets to Europe should cancel their flights at this stage.
"If the flight is to be cancelled, let the airline do it, because it's the best way of preserving your travel insurance and ensuring that you can be rescheduled at a later stage," he said.
For anyone with plans for Euro summer who has yet to secure their travel, Bartsch's message is to "go ahead and make your arrangements to book".
"If anything, if airfares increase, then you're going to get a better deal on your airfares now," he said.
The length of the conflict in the Middle East will determine its impact on travel. At this stage, it is unclear exactly how long the war could drag on for.
US President Donald Trump, who initially indicated he expected US military action would continue for four weeks, updated his predictions on Tuesday.
"We projected four to five weeks but we have capability to go far longer than that. We'll do it," Trump said, noting that he would not "get bored" of the war.
While the conflict has expanded, with 11 countries cross the Middle East now having been targeted either by US-Israeli fire or Iranian retaliation, Bartsch said that airlines would not fly if it weren't safe to do so.
"Airlines will continue to do all their risk assessments of their flights using the latest information that's available, and they do have access to vast amounts of information from governments and elsewhere," he said.
"If the airline tells you it's safe to fly, then I think you've got to take their advice and have faith in their determination, because they're the ones that are best placed to assess a risk and whether that risk is an acceptable risk."
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