in brief
- Emergency services across the country are preparing for warmer months ahead.
- A strengthening El Niño is influencing the outlook, but it is not the only climate driver at play.
Fire authorities across Australia are preparing for a spring fire season that could bring sharply different risks depending on the region, with some areas facing an early bushfire threat while others contend with delayed wet seasons and severe weather.
The Bureau of Meteorology's Michael Egan said a strengthening El Niño is influencing the outlook, but it is not the only climate driver at play.
"I will just remind everyone that the bureau's long-range forecast does incorporate all of the influences from our surrounding oceans and the atmosphere as well as other long-term climate trends.
"I mention that because I'm sure most people are aware an El Niño event is underway, it is strengthening, and it is going to be a very strong one," Egan said.
Authorities say conditions vary significantly from region to region, with dry weather, warmer temperatures and increased fuel loads contributing to the risk.
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Crews preparing in each state and territory
Victoria is among the states preparing for an early start to the bushfire season, with hotter, drier conditions expected in spring.
Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch said significant fire danger could emerge from October.
"Victoria can expect a hotter and drier spring, which means that we could see significant bushfire risk commencing from as early as October this year, and our emergency services in Victoria are now starting to prepare for that scenario that could mean that we could see campaign fires start as early as October and take us right through the summer months," Wiebusch said.
Parts of southern inland Queensland and the southeast are also expected to experience above-average fire danger.
Acting Deputy Chief Officer Aaron Howard said crews are already conducting hazard-reduction burns and other mitigation work in high-risk areas.
"At Queensland fire department we continue to prepare, our crews continue to take hazard reduction burns and mitigation activities in high-risk localities across the state where conditions allow," Howard said.
In the Northern Territory, authorities are preparing for the possibility of heightened fire danger across several regions at the same time.
Fire and Emergency Commissioner Andrew Warton said a delayed Top End wet season could extend the period of elevated risk in the north, while other parts of the territory enter their own high-risk periods.
"This year the forecast later onset of the Top End wet season meets an elevated fire danger in the north, could extend into November, and at the same time the Barkley, Tanami and Central Australia regions move into their high-risk period. That creates the potential for significant fire risk across multiple regions of the Northern Territory simultaneously," Warton said.
In Western Australia, the south-west is emerging from its second-driest July on record, with low rainfall forecast through spring.
Fire and Emergency Services Commissioner Darren Klemm said residents should use the time now to prepare for the possibility of bushfires.
"It's the perfect time to prepare. Don't wait for a bushfire to start. Take the time now to make a plan, understand your risks, and discuss it with your loved ones," Klemm said.
South Australia has recently received rain, leaving much of the landscape green and keeping current fire danger low.
But Country Fire Service Chief Officer Brett Loughlin said conditions can change quickly and residents should not become complacent.
"Whilst the landscape is very green and the fire risk is currently low we are urging people to not be complacent we're urging people to take the risk of fire seriously, "Loughlin said.
Tasmania is also preparing for an early start to its fire season, with authorities focused on ensuring communities are ready before conditions deteriorate.
Deputy Chief Officer Matt Lowe said the focus is on getting people prepared before conditions worsen.
In the ACT, overall bushfire risk is expected to be around average, although fire danger could increase during periods of dry weather.
In New South Wales, drier conditions are expected, particularly west of the Great Dividing Range, increasing fire concerns. But severe storms could also bring heavy rain, damaging winds, large hail and flash flooding.
Advice for households
For households, the advice is to take simple steps to prepare for an emergency.
NSW Emergency Services Minister Jihad Dib says basic home maintenance can help reduce the risk of damage, particularly from storms and flooding.
"So we're trying to get everybody out to be prepared as much as they possibly can and our SES will turn up and they will support you but we also need communities to do their bit - clear your gutters and the reason we say clear your gutters is that will stop the flooding in your gutters that then go back in to your home," Dib said.
While the outlook varies significantly across the country, emergency authorities are delivering a consistent message: residents should understand the risks in their area and prepare before conditions become dangerous.
Despite differing outlooks across the country, authorities are urging residents to understand their local risks, make a plan, and prepare before conditions deteriorate.
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