IN BRIEF
- Seven in 10 young Australians still want children, challenging common assumptions about parenthood.
- Confidence in public institutions emerged as one of the strongest predictors of family aspirations.
New data suggests that confidence in society may be just as important as financial security when planning a family. The data found nearly 79 per cent of young Australians who trust Australia's institutions hope to have children one day, compared with 59 per cent who don't.
The research comes as Australia continues to grapple with record-low fertility rates, which fell to 1.48 babies per woman in 2024, the lowest since records began and well below the replacement rate of 2.1.
Rising living costs, housing affordability and childcare expenses are being widely blamed for Australians delaying or having fewer children.
But researchers from the Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS) say the conversation has been missing another important piece of the puzzle: whether young Australians believe the institutions around them will help support them in parenthood.
Drawing on longitudinal data which they've been tracking since 2004, researchers found around 7 in 10 Australians aged 19 to 20 and 23 to 24 still hope to become parents.
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Just 17 per cent said they did not want children, while 13 per cent had not yet considered it.
Dr Kristen Power, lead author of the report, which analyses data from the AIFS' Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, told SBS News that the findings indicate family planning is shaped by a much broader sense of security than simply what's in someone's bank account.
"I think what we'd like people to take away is that a lot of the narrative around people's decisions about having children looks at financial security, but what we found is that security is a whole range of factors beyond just people's immediate financial situation," she said.
The study has tracked thousands of Australian children and their families since 2004, with researchers analysing responses from participants aged 19 to 20 and 23 to 24.
Power said this method of data collection provided a "life course perspective" with researchers able to account for childhood experiences, including family structure and the number of siblings participants grew up with.
The 'modern village'
The strongest relationship uncovered by the research was trust in systems and institutions, which Power believes is a reflection of what researchers describe as the "modern village".
"It takes a village to raise a child," she said.
"These days people don't necessarily have their extended family around them helping to raise children, so they're relying more on this modern village, which includes hospitals, childcare services, schools and the welfare system.
"People who trusted those supports would be there when they needed them were more likely to say they wanted children."
University of Melbourne professor Dan Woodman said trust in institutions is ultimately about confidence that society will support families into the future.
"When you imagine having a child, you're thinking about whether the things you need to help you raise that child will actually be there," he said.
"Feeling that society and its institutions are functioning well shapes whether people feel it's the right time to start a family."
Young people haven't given up on parenthood
The findings also push back against the idea that younger generations simply no longer want children.
While Australia's fertility rate has steadily fallen over recent decades, most participants in the study still hoped to have children, with many aspiring to have two or three.
Power said previous research consistently shows many Australians end up having fewer children than they originally hoped for.
"It's not so much that young people don't want to have children," she said.
"Maybe the opportunities aren't there, or the supports that they would need aren't there, or the timing isn't there. There are all different kinds of things that get in the way of them achieving their aspirations."
Housing matters — but it's not the only concern
Housing affordability dominated responses across the survey, with 85 per cent of young Australians saying they were concerned about it.
Yet it wasn't statistically associated with whether participants wanted children.
Power said that wasn't because housing had become less important, but rather, almost everybody was worried about it.
"Housing affordability absolutely is still central, and cost of living definitely is," she said.
"It's just that there's also other things that are part of the picture."
Sophie Renton is the managing director of research and advisory firm McCrindle. She agreed, saying the findings broaden the conversation beyond economics alone.
"When people trust the environment they're in, trust the institutions around them, and believe it's a safe and financially secure place to bring a child into the world, they're more likely to do so," she said.
"If they have less trust, they may decide not to bring a child into that environment."
She emphasised women in particular now face greater opportunity costs than previous generations because of higher educational attainment and stronger workforce participation, making the decision to have children more complex.
An act of optimism
Environmental concerns also featured strongly in the research.
About 65 per cent of participants said they were at least somewhat concerned about the future of the environment.
Those with the highest levels of concern were less likely to want children, although most still hoped to become parents.
Woodman said the findings reflect a broader shift in how young Australians experience adulthood.
He told SBS News that people are spending longer studying, establishing careers and finding secure housing before considering children, while parenthood has shifted from something that was once largely expected to a more deliberate life choice.
"To start a family today is an act of optimism," Woodman said.
"It involves throwing yourself and your family into the future and hoping that future is going to be a good one."
For governments hoping to lift Australia's birth rate, the researchers say the message is clear.
Supporting young Australians to achieve the families they hope for will require more than one-off payments or childcare subsidies.
It will also require rebuilding confidence in the institutions, economy and broader society that shape whether young people feel secure enough to plan for the future.
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