TRANSCRIPT
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that infects hundreds of millions of people each year.
Researchers say cases are increasing, partly due to higher temperatures.
Dr Vinh Bui is from Southern Cross University.
"From 300 to 400 million infections annually that cost billions of dollars per year. The problem is getting worse due to the global warming phenomenon along with the rapid urbanisation and human mobility all around the world."
Dr Bui is part of a project that's developed what's been described as a highly sophisticated forecasting tool for dengue fever which will enable communities to take precautions up to three months before outbreaks occur.
"So, if it can incorporate their early warning system into the current routine practice, we can help the local health practice to conduct the proactive intervention rather than the reactive intervention that they are doing now."
That reactive intervention involves spraying insecticide after outbreaks have occurred.
Associate Professor Dung Phung from the University of Queensland says a highly sophisticated computer model will be trialled in Vietnam's Mekong Delta early next year with the hope of providing communities with advance warning of outbreaks.
He says the computer model contains a huge amount of information.
"All the climatic information like rainfall, temperatures, humidity, plus historical case data and process it with advanced statistical and artificial intelligence model."
He says the trial aims to reduce case numbers by up to 25 per cent.
"We target to reduce from 16 to 25 per cent of dengue cases if we use the early warning system and proactive interventions compared with the current, routine practice."
Another researcher involved in the trial is Professor Dan Weinberger from the Yale School of Public Health.
He regards Vietnam as a test case and hopes the model can be adapted to other countries.
"The type of data that we're bringing here I think is available in many other countries in the region. So, I think it would need some validation using historical data to ensure that the models that we're using in Vietnam are also the optimal models to use in the other countries, But I think that our hope is that this is a test case for an apporach that can be deployed elsewhere in the region. There's really a lot of interest in these types of early warning systems in the dengue field now. So it will become a model for others to follow."
