Key Points
- Only 3 outcome areas are on track to achieve their 2031 targets
- Suicide, child removals and incarceration are all deteriorating
- There are calls for financial penalties against states and territories that aren't meeting the targets
Warning: this article discusses self-harm, and may be distressing to some readers.
Advocates are urging the federal government to help drive policy changes around the country, as the latest Closing the Gap data from the Productivity Commission reveals outrageous failures amongst the National Agreement outcomes.
Altering funding arrangements and penalising jurisdictions that do not proactively drive improvements to the targets have been flagged as viable ways for the federal government to influence state and territory legislation.
Several of the socio-economic outcomes, including children in out-of-home care and suicide rates, show serious deterioration, while the scale of incarceration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people is at its worst on record.
Acting Chair of NATSILS Nerita Waight said the figures were a natural consequence of policy changes around the country.
“When are state and territory governments going to realise that over-policing Aboriginal communities and making it easier to lock children up is making communities more dangerous and making outcomes worse?” the Yorta Yorta Narrandjeri woman asked.
"Governments across the country are knowingly driving the mass incarceration of Aboriginal people, including children, all in the name of political point-scoring."
Ms Waight called on the prime minister to intervene with measures available to the federal government.
"Closing the Gap targets are not meant to be suggestions," she said.
"There are levers to pull in terms of the funding agreements with state and territories that will drive real policy change and improve the lives of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, especially our children."
The federal minister for Indigenous Australians, Malarndirri McCarthy, last year flagged potential penalties for jurisdictions that fail to make progress on the Closing the Gap outcomes.
In light of the latest figures, Independent Senator for Victoria Lidia Thorpe has questioned the efficacy of the National Agreement, calling on the government to follow through on its threat.
"This framework has no real enforceability, no accountability ... and no recourse for our people when governments breach their commitments or violate our rights," the Gunnai Gunditjmara Djab Wurrung woman said.
"It creates the illusion of action, but does nothing to stop the policies driving harm.
"What we need are real consequences for governments, such as financial penalties, when they continue to lock up our people and take our children."
In response to the latest Productivity Commission figures, a spokesperson said the government was investing "in the areas that make the greatest difference" to the Closing the Gap outcomes.
"This includes programs focused on creating remote jobs and training opportunities, easing cost of living pressures and strengthening food security in remote communities, and improving housing, health and education outcomes for First Nations people," they said.
"The Productivity Commission’s data also shows that outcomes vary markedly across states and territories, with significantly poorer results in remote areas.
"The data underscores the need for state and territory governments to take action to improve outcomes in areas where they hold the levers for change."
Suicide, incarceration, child removals: the human cost of Closing the Gap failures
The National Agreement on Closing the Gap set targets for improvement that aim to be realised by 2031.
Of the 17 socio-economic outcome areas, only three are on track.
A further five are showing improvement but, on current projections, will not achieve their slated targets in time.
Two outcome areas (healthy birthweights and young people in detention) have shown no improvement from their baseline.
But some of the more damning figures are seen in the most consequential outcome areas: the rates of suicide, children in out-of-home care and incarceration are all worsening.
The rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people who took their own life in 2024 increased to 33.9 per 100,000 people.
"This is the highest rate over the period from the baseline in 2018," the report notes.
Up to June 2025, the rate of Indigenous incarceration was 2.5 per cent of the adult population, an increase on the previous year and a severe deterioration from the baseline set in 2019 (1.9 per cent).
The Northern Territory showed the steepest increase off the baseline in adult incarceration.
It follows the introduction of so-called 'tough on crime' laws by the CLP government in recent years.
Almost no targets for children on track
Only one target relating to children and young people is on track to be achieved on time.
94 per cent of children were enrolled in preschool, on track for the 2025 target of 95 per cent.
Every other outcome is not on track, stagnant or worsening.
The 2031 target for children in out-of-home care is a 45 per cent reduction from the 2019 baseline, from 4.73 per cent to 2.1 per cent.
Instead the latest figures reveal an increase to 5.03 per cent.
Birthweights, early development and youth detention are also not on track.
The CEO of SNAICC, the national peak body for Indigenous children, said investment in Aboriginal controlled organisations was "the missing piece of the puzzle".
"There is a wealth of programs that are working on the ground to close the gap for our children, yet government backing is haphazard and often short term," said Arrernte Luritja CEO Catherine Liddle.
"By failing to work with us, governments are contributing to cycles of child removal, criminalisation and systemic disadvantage for our children."
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