In brief
- Australians are likely in for a warm spring, according to long-range forecasts.
- It comes as the El Niño climate driver continues to strengthen.
Warmer-than-usual weather is expected to continue across much of Australia from winter into spring.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has released its long-range forecast for September to November, predicting that both daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to be above average in most of the country.
Rainfall is expected to be below average across parts of Australia's south and east, and above average across much of the western half of the country.
The bureau notes that spring is also a peak time of year for severe thunderstorms, especially along the east coast.
"The warmer forecast increases the risk of early-season heat, particularly across southern Australia," said David Crock, senior BoM meteorologist.
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"While rainfall is expected to be below average in some areas, this does not mean it will be dry all the time. It means there is likely to be less rainfall than usual."
Spring rainfall is likely to be below average in much of Victoria, southern NSW and the ACT, north and east Tasmania, parts of eastern Queensland, southern South Australia and pockets of the far north Northern Territory.
Above average rainfall is expected across parts of north-west South Australia and across most of Western Australia, with the exception of the south-western corner.
The forecast coincides with a strengthening El Niño, expected to be one of the strongest on record, increasing the chances of hot, dry weather and raising concerns for farmers and bushfire agencies.
The spring bushfire outlook is varied across the country, with increased fire risks expected in some regions, including parts of Victoria, NSW and WA.
El Niño's role
The BoM expects El Niño to strengthen and persist through spring and summer.
But while the climate driver is associated with drier conditions across parts of Australia, the agency said the strength of an El Niño doesn't always match its impacts on Australian rainfall.
Other climate factors can also influence rainfall and temperature in Australia.
"Oceans around Australia and globally are also much warmer than usual, adding moisture and energy that can fuel rain systems," Crock said.
A study published last week found the Pacific climate pattern that drives El Niño and La Niña is showing larger swings, with more frequent and intense El Niño events than at any time in the past millennium, adding to evidence that climate change is amplifying one of the world's most influential climate systems.
A warmer winter and rough snow season
Winter was warmer than usual across much of the country.
Australia's snow season, which runs from June to October, is set to be one of the worst on record, despite plenty of moisture passing over the Australian Alps.
"If the air was cold enough to make this precipitation fall as snow, this would have been one of the best snow seasons on record. Unfortunately, it was too warm," Weatherzone said in an update this week.
Dr Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist and Protect Our Winters science alliance member, told SBS News last month that record-breaking temperatures are increasingly common in a warming climate, and predicted snow seasons will continue to shrink.
Little snow fell until 3 July this year, forcing Australia's alpine resorts to lean on snowmaking technology.
With above-average temperatures and below-average rain expected in the coming months, it's not looking good for snow sports lovers this season.
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