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It's been a decade since 195 countries set a goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
The Paris Agreement stated greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025, and decline 43 per cent by 2030.
Professor Ian Lowe from Griffith University School of Science says it's a target that's now impossible to reach.
“Two years ago, the Secretary General of the UN said that the 1.5 degree Paris target was on life support. I think you'd have to say now that the life support has been turned off. And there's no longer any realistic prospect in keeping the increase in average global temperature below 1.5° and on current policy settings, it's very difficult still to be optimistic we might keep it below 2°.”
The European Union's annual Copernicus Programme climate report has revealed in 2025, the global average temperature was 1.47 degrees above the 1850 to 1900 pre-industrial level, making it the third hottest year on record.
For the first time, the global three-year average temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees.
If warming continues at the same rate, Professor Lowe says by 2030, 1.5 degrees will be permanently surpassed.
“We're already seeing more frequent, more severe extreme events. And what climate scientists warned decision makers is once it goes above 1.5° we're in an uncharted territory. We cannot predict with assurance, how bad the impacts will be.”
The report shows Antarctica had its hottest year on record, and the Arctic its second hottest, resulting in the worst melting of polar ice caps to date.
In February 2025, the combined extent of polar ice caps was the lowest ever recorded, at 15.76 million square kilometers.
Professor Lowe says this accelerated ice cap melting has a direct and concerning impact on climate change.
“Ice reflects most of the sunlight that hits it. ocean water absorbs most of the sunlight. So as the polar ice caps shrinks, more sunlight is absorbed, which means it gets warmer, which means the polar ice caps shrinks, which means it gets warmer, which means the polar ice caps shrinks. We really are risking what's been called runaway climate change, not just a couple of degrees increase, but increase which is fostering further increases. And that's potentially catastrophic for human civilization.”
C02 and methane emissions for 2025 were also recorded at their highest level.
Patrick Galey, Director of Fossil Fuels Investigations at Global Witness says massive new projects, including the US seizing and expanding the Venezuelan oil industry, guarantee emissions will continue on a damaging upward trajectory.
“Per barrel of oil the carbon intensity in Venezuelan crude is significantly higher than virtually everywhere in the world. As you increase production, the amount of gas that escapes, and obviously this is methane gas which is coming out and being vented, which is extremely damaging short term to the climate, is guaranteed to increase.”
Professor Lowe says decision makers need to be held to account for their part in accelerating climate change.
“Every decision to produce more oil, to produce more gas, to produce more coal is a decision to accelerate climate change. And it really should be seen in that sense as criminally irresponsible.”
A separate report commissioned by climate news website Carbon Brief revels there's been progress in two of the world's largest economies- China and India.
In 2025, electricity generated by coal fell 1.6% in China and 3% in India, after a boom in clean energy met rising demand.
Economist at Climate Council Nicki Hutley says this move away from coal has a significant impact on global emissions.
“China and India for the first time ever their emissions fell in a year both countries and they are absolutely critical. China's taking a bit of a lead, they were really showing up at COP, they still have a lot of work to do, but it was great to see these two really large economies moving in the right direction.”
She says the shift toward renewable energy is largely being led by industry.
“The private sector is really pushing in the transition agenda, probably much faster than governments. it makes economic sense to do so, particularly in the energy sector.”
One area where China is proving to be a world leader is wind energy technology, with the world's first 20-megawatt offshore wind turbine installed this week in waters near Fujian.
The technology offers reduced environmental impact compared with conventional wind farms, as well as some optimism that drastic calls for action are slowly being answered by innovation.
